The pace of first-time jobless claims over the past few weeks denotes some slowing in the easing of firings across the economy. The stalling out suggests that the easy gains of the recovery’s early stages are likely in the rear-view mirror and the hard work of digging out of the economic abyss lies ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Resurgence of pandemic in the U.K.
The sharp sell-off across financial markets on Monday is linked to fears about a global resurgence of the pandemic. Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.K., where R – the reproduction rate of COVID-19 – is approaching 1.7. That is akin to a nuclear event in terms of public health. An R at that ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer sentiment continues its climb back
The index of U.S. consumer sentiment index continued to climb back from the depths of the economic shutdown in April, the University of Michigan reported Friday. The index reached 78.9 in September, which was up from 74.1 in August and 71.8 in April. It was the second month in a row that the index had ... READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of COVID-19: A resurgent virus, and a grim milestone
Following a late-summer lull in the coronavirus pandemic, the rate of infections has resumed its increase in the United States and is poised to intensify in the coming weeks, RSM’s modeling shows. This comes as the number of coronavirus deaths will soon pass a grim milestone: 200,000 in the United ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Housing starts decline 5.1%
Housing starts declined 5.1% month over month in August, while forward-looking building permits held steady with a slight decline of .9%, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. This brings the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts to 1.4 million and permits to nearly 1.5 ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain elevated at 860,000
The pace of firings in the U.S. economy remains well above anything observed during the Great Financial Crisis as 860,000 workers filed for first-time jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 12, a reflection of the deep scarring in the domestic labor market and economy. An additional 658,737 filed for ... READ MORE >
Monetary policy and inflation in the modern era
The Fed is embarking on a new era in monetary policy, switching from its point target of 2% inflation to a target range of 1% to 3%. This change is predicated on longer-run structural changes in the economy that are inherently disinflationary, a real neutral interest rate near zero and much slower growth ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Retail sales rise amid soft back-to-school spending
Retail sales grew for the fourth month in a row in August, but the expected lift from back-to-school spending was not as great as anticipated. Retail sales rose by 0.6% from July to August, and by 0.1% compared to a year ago, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a 1% ... READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of COVID-19: A summer so foul
There have been more than 6.7 million coronavirus cases and more than 198,000 deaths in the United States, according to the WorldoMeters database. Despite improvement in recent weeks, the rate of infections remains elevated heading into the fall. All of this has occurred in the eight months since ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The velocity of money and recession
One long-held nostrum in economics is that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. For years, some economists focused on growth in the money supply and the velocity of money, which is the ratio at which money changes hands, to ascertain the direction of growth and risks to the outlook ... READ MORE >