The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that later this month it would start paring back its pandemic-era monetary accommodation even as it held its policy rate between zero and 25 basis points. This policy step, announced after the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, creates ... READ MORE >
Covid-19
Chart of the day: Service sector grew at record pace
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index hit a record high in October at 66.7%, 4.8 percentage points higher than in September, confirming the recent shift in consumption from goods to services that will last until the end of the year. A reading above 49.2% indicates expansion. The surging overall ... READ MORE >
ADP private payrolls: Large companies continue to attract workers
The ADP estimate for nonfarm private employment in October continued to show an increase in net job gains, led by a sharp rise from small service-providing companies as the delta variant’s surge crested. Still, large companies with more than 1,000 employees continued to account for the biggest ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: An inflation tantrum?
Financial markets around the world are reacting to the rising risk of inflation and the prospect of policy responses by central banks, all of which have led to a modest easing in our RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index. The Bank of Canada has already halted its bond purchase plan, the Reserve ... READ MORE >
Enhanced child tax credit was a game-changer for families, and the economy
Even as the economy slowed in the third quarter as the delta variant took hold, that slowdown would have been far worse if not for the enhanced child tax credit that was introduced on July 15. By our estimate, the enhanced child tax credit, which provided direct payments to about 35 ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Holding steady
Financial conditions in the UK remain accommodative, signaling confidence that the policies of the monetary and fiscal authorities have created the framework for a sustained economic recovery. Ahead of the Bank of England’s critical decisions on policy normalization on Thursday, this should provide ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report preview: Expect a gain of 475,000 in October
When the October U.S. employment report is released on Friday, a central area of focus will be on the potential return of women in their prime working years to the labor force as the delta variant fades, child care becomes more available, schools reopen and hiring accelerates. We expect that the ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Expansion hits headwinds
The recovery of the manufacturing sector in the United States remained intact in October, with expectations for the expansion to continue over the next six months. Surveys of manufacturing activity conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks reported increases in new orders despite backlogs, longer ... READ MORE >
Workers chart a different course as new business formations surge
This is the third article in a series examining the transformation of the American workforce during the pandemic. Part I looked at what is driving this change and Part II looked at the rise of $15 an hour as the de facto minimum wage in the private sector. One area of a dynamically changing domestic ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Wages grew fastest in 20 years
The tight labor market sent worker compensation growth in the third quarter to its highest level in 20 years, posting a 1.3% gain, according to Employment Cost Index data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. The Employment Cost Index is the Federal Reserve's top wage gauge, and is ... READ MORE >