The strong retail sales figures for August were not only a welcome surprise for retailers after months of decline, but they also showed the enduring impact of the pandemic as consumers relied less on human contact and increasingly shopped at home. … READ MORE >
Delta variant
Initial jobless claims rise in the wake of Hurricane Ida
The economic impact of Hurricane Ida was evident in the most recent initial jobless claims data, which rose to 332,000 for the week ending Sept. 11. … READ MORE >
Import prices dropped below expectation in August, but prices from Asia remained hot
The U.S. import price index decreased by 0.3% in August, the first decline since October 2020, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in July, while the core index, which excludes petroleum, fell by 0.1%. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Small business optimism inched up in August, yet hiring struggles remained
The small business optimism index increased slightly to 100.1 in August, rising by 0.4 points over July, as employers struggled to fill job openings. … READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Inflation eased in August, but it’s too soon to declare victory
Score a victory for team transitory in the inflation wars. The Consumer Price Index eased in August, reaffirming our view that inflation likely formed a peak in the summer following the historic supply shock that defined pandemic economics starting last year. … READ MORE >
Global supply chain disruptions accelerate, presenting a challenge to the middle market
Fragile global supply chains are facing another round of port closures, factory shutdowns, production halts and labor shortages as the delta variant spreads. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: How the enhanced child tax credit expands outlays on food, shelter and books
The data shows that the policy is providing an increase in spending among those with the highest marginal propensity to consume—the very people who are intended to benefit from the child tax credit. And that spending has a multiplier effect, leading to a boost in overall economic activity. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Producer Price Index decelerated in August
The headline Producer Price Index increased by 0.7% in August, a slower pace than the 1.0% monthly gains in June and July, while the core index excluding food and energy rose by 0.6%. The lower numbers indicate that inflation, at least from the sellers’ perspective, has most likely passed its summer peak. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to 310,000, but expect volatility in the coming weeks
First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined to 310,000 for the week ending Sept. 4, down from 345,000 the week before and well below the 13-week moving average of 377,000. Continuing claims increased to 2.783 million for the week ending Aug. 28. … READ MORE >
Avoiding a COVID-19 pandemic among children
High transmissibility and case severity of new variants add urgency to protecting those who cannot be vaccinated, increasing overall vaccination rates, and ensuring a safe and productive environment for a full reopening of the economy. … READ MORE >