Traditionally after recessions, once the unemployment rate falls below 5%, workers on the sideline tend to begin trickling back into the workforce. The October U.S. employment report released on Friday was no exception, showing an increase of 531,000 jobs and a decline of roughly 255,000 in the jobless ... READ MORE >
Delta variant
Canada’s trade surplus widened amid microchip shortage
Canada’s merchandise trade balance had the fourth consecutive month of surplus in September as global supply chain bottlenecks debilitated the automotive industry, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Thursday. Although the surplus widened, the falling of both exports by 2.3% and imports ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims drop to pandemic low as labor market rebounds
New filings for jobless claims declined for the fifth consecutive month as labor shortages kept layoffs low. At the current pace, new jobless claims could reach their pre-pandemic level by the end of the year. Initial jobless claims declined to 269,000 for the week ending Oct. 30, following an ... READ MORE >
Fed slows asset purchases as it moves to end pandemic-era accommodation
The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that later this month it would start paring back its pandemic-era monetary accommodation even as it held its policy rate between zero and 25 basis points. This policy step, announced after the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, creates ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Service sector grew at record pace
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index hit a record high in October at 66.7%, 4.8 percentage points higher than in September, confirming the recent shift in consumption from goods to services that will last until the end of the year. A reading above 49.2% indicates expansion. The surging overall ... READ MORE >
ADP private payrolls: Large companies continue to attract workers
The ADP estimate for nonfarm private employment in October continued to show an increase in net job gains, led by a sharp rise from small service-providing companies as the delta variant’s surge crested. Still, large companies with more than 1,000 employees continued to account for the biggest ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: An inflation tantrum?
Financial markets around the world are reacting to the rising risk of inflation and the prospect of policy responses by central banks, all of which have led to a modest easing in our RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index. The Bank of Canada has already halted its bond purchase plan, the Reserve ... READ MORE >
Enhanced child tax credit was a game-changer for families, and the economy
Even as the economy slowed in the third quarter as the delta variant took hold, that slowdown would have been far worse if not for the enhanced child tax credit that was introduced on July 15. By our estimate, the enhanced child tax credit, which provided direct payments to about 35 ... READ MORE >
The pandemic and the vanishing American worker
This is the fourth article in a series examining the transformation of the American workforce during the pandemic. Part I looked at what is driving this change, Part II looked at the rise of $15 an hour as the de facto minimum wage in the private sector and Part III discussed the surge in new business ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Holding steady
Financial conditions in the UK remain accommodative, signaling confidence that the policies of the monetary and fiscal authorities have created the framework for a sustained economic recovery. Ahead of the Bank of England’s critical decisions on policy normalization on Thursday, this should provide ... READ MORE >