The American economy continued to show resilience in the first quarter though signs of softening in the future emerged, according to data on durable goods and consumer confidence released Tuesday. In perhaps the most significant development on inflation, housing prices, a sticking point in the ... READ MORE >
durable goods
Softer economic data reaffirms prospect of a soft landing
The Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary stance showed that it continues to affect the economy in the first two months of the year. In other words, the Fed is getting closer to its goal of achieving a soft landing when the economy cools back down to a sustainable level of growth with inflation under ... READ MORE >
Business equipment spending rebounds
Business orders for equipment rebounded in August after falling for two straight months, an encouraging sign for American businesses, which should look through the current economic headwinds to prepare for a soft-landing in the economy. Wednesday's data on the broader economy was in line with what our ... READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment falls more than expected
Orders and shipments of core capital goods that exclude defense and aircraft spending, a key measure of private business investment, both fell by 0.4% in March, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. It is now clear that the nonresidential component of private investment has caught up ... READ MORE >
U.S. inventories are growing at twice the rate of sales
With demand remaining strong, middle market firms have been increasing their inventories during the current quarter, with just under a majority expecting to do so over the next six months, according to the RSM US Middle Market Business Index. Inventories are now growing at twice the rate of ... READ MORE >
Durable goods spending and jobless claims rise
Durable goods orders and shipments posted sharp increases in October, defying recession fears, according to data from the Census Bureau on Wednesday. New orders rose by 1% in October, while core orders, which exclude transportation and defense, rose by 0.8%. Orders for capital goods, a proxy for ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence and core investment grow despite recession fear
American consumers and private businesses showed improved confidence in the economy despite recession concerns, according to economic data released on Tuesday. The data reaffirmed our forecast of a solid economic rebound toward the end of the year, pushing our recession call to next year. The ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: American businesses kept investing in April despite rising costs
American businesses invested more in April despite rising costs and concerns over demand slowing down. The need for investment in productivity-enhancing equipment has become more pressing as labor shortages and higher costs continue to put pressure on profit margins. We expect investment to moderate to ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Durable goods orders surged by a surprising 1.8% in August
Helped by strong aircraft orders, durable goods orders in August rose by 1.8% on the month, easily beating analyst estimates of 0.7%, according to Commerce Department data released Monday. The increase in new orders was even more remarkable as July’s reading was revised upward to an increase of 0.5% ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Still expansionary, but slipping from its peak
This has been a durables-led recovery, with employment in the manufacturing sector back to 97% of its pre-pandemic levels. But after a year of rapid growth, there are signs that the buoyancy among manufacturers is ebbing. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, while still elevated, declined in ... READ MORE >