A look at August’s job report reveals clear signs of a soft landing. Canada added 40,000 jobs, smashing expectations, and offset the modest loss in July many times over. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%, according to data released on Friday by Statistics Canada. Immigration has played a ... READ MORE >
economy
Canada’s economy cools but outlook remains positive
Canada’s GDP grew 3.1% in the first quarter of 2022 as business investment and household consumption continued to boom while energy exports dragged, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. The figure was in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast but noticeably under market ... READ MORE >
Existing home sales rebounded in September to highest level since February
Sales of existing homes bounced back in September, with 6.29 million units sold, the highest level since February, and up 7% compared to the prior month, according to a report released on Thursday from the National Association of Realtors. The sales number was an upside surprise to earlier estimates of ... READ MORE >
U.S. June employment report: Look for robust hiring above 750,000
We expect a total change in employment of 750,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.6% in the U.S. June employment report. The major economic narrative to emerge from the summer hiring reports will likely be that consumers are flush with cash and pivoting to demand services, which will bolster ... READ MORE >
RSM recovery watch: Upgraded growth forecast and more evidence of a turn in the business cycle
There are signs that the business cycle has made a turn, bottoming out of a deep recession and moving into its next phase of sustained economic growth. As such, we have recently upgraded our forecast for 2021 real GDP growth to 7.5% (7.2% previously) on a year-over-year basis, a decline in the ... READ MORE >
Trump tests positive: Assessing its impact on the economy via financial markets
Financial markets reacted quickly overnight to the news that President Trump had tested positive for the novel coronavirus. At this point, we think that any impact on the economy can be measured through the financial channel, the confidence channel and through consumer spending, with a lag. Because ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. durable goods orders accelerate on the back of strong auto demand
U.S. orders for durable goods rose 11.2% in July compared to June, led by strong automobile demand, according to Census Bureau data. This uptick further bolsters the belief that manufacturing activity will help lead the U.S. economic recovery. Orders for motor vehicles and parts jumped 21.9% in July, ... READ MORE >
Surprise increase in jobs, but some worrying signs for the Canadian economy
The Canadian economy is coming back on line and appears to have bottomed out--at least for now. Social distancing measures have been eased; real time and high frequency indicators like traffic levels, public transportation use and restaurant bookings have increased. Canada added 289,600 jobs in the ... READ MORE >
U.S. Q4’19 GDP: slow and steady
The U.S. growth picture on Thursday arrived spot on with the 2.1% economic consensus driven by solid but slowing personal consumption and strong government spending. The large drop in imports, along with the noticeable easing of spending in the fourth quarter, does denote some caution on the growth ... READ MORE >
August hiring slows: Jobs report shows unflattering shape of things to come
August hiring slowed to 130,000 jobs, reflecting late-cycle business dynamics and the impact of the trade war that is now spilling over into the real economy. After adjusting for Census Bureau hiring, the top-line hiring increase was only 105,000 jobs, just above the 100,000 necessary to stabilize the ... READ MORE >