The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate to three per cent on Wednesday, but trade policy uncertainty looms over Canada’s economic outlook and clouds the future rate path. The 25 basis point cut was widely anticipated as both inflation and inflation expectations moderated while interest rates ... READ MORE >
economy
Trudeau’s resignation spurs uncertainty across Canada’s economy
Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Liberal Party leader and prime minister on Monday ushers in a new wave of uncertainty for the Canadian economy and financial markets. Expect delays in business decisions, sluggish hiring and subdued investments in the immediate aftermath of Trudeau’s resignation. ... READ MORE >
Resignation of Canada’s finance minister before release of fall economic statement adds to uncertainty
(Editor's note: This post has been updated with the latest from the federal government's fall economic statement) Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as Canada’s finance minister highlights increasing uncertainty in the country's political environment as financial challenges loom in 2025. Reaction was ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3.25% as focus shifts to gap with U.S.
The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.25 per cent — an overdue move out of restrictive territory given that inflation has largely been tamed. Expect more rate cuts in early 2025 to get the economy onto an expansionary trajectory. The policy rate should come down to 2.75 per cent within the ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job market cools as unemployment rises to 6.8%
Canada added 51,000 jobs in November, double the expected number, but the overall picture does not look rosy. The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent — the highest since January 2017 — as more people looked for work. A slow job market finally hit wages, as wage growth ... READ MORE >
Soft landing likely as Canada added 40,000 jobs in August
A look at August’s job report reveals clear signs of a soft landing. Canada added 40,000 jobs, smashing expectations, and offset the modest loss in July many times over. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%, according to data released on Friday by Statistics Canada. Immigration has played a ... READ MORE >
Canada’s economy cools but outlook remains positive
Canada’s GDP grew 3.1% in the first quarter of 2022 as business investment and household consumption continued to boom while energy exports dragged, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. The figure was in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast but noticeably under market ... READ MORE >
Existing home sales rebounded in September to highest level since February
Sales of existing homes bounced back in September, with 6.29 million units sold, the highest level since February, and up 7% compared to the prior month, according to a report released on Thursday from the National Association of Realtors. The sales number was an upside surprise to earlier estimates of ... READ MORE >
U.S. June employment report: Look for robust hiring above 750,000
We expect a total change in employment of 750,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.6% in the U.S. June employment report. The major economic narrative to emerge from the summer hiring reports will likely be that consumers are flush with cash and pivoting to demand services, which will bolster ... READ MORE >
RSM recovery watch: Upgraded growth forecast and more evidence of a turn in the business cycle
There are signs that the business cycle has made a turn, bottoming out of a deep recession and moving into its next phase of sustained economic growth. As such, we have recently upgraded our forecast for 2021 real GDP growth to 7.5% (7.2% previously) on a year-over-year basis, a decline in the ... READ MORE >