We expect that Hurricane Helene and labor action at Boeing will distort the jobs data for October. The employment report, which will be released on Nov. 1, will most likely be the first of two reports that will understate the true condition of the American labor market. Read more of RSM's insights ... READ MORE >
employment report
U.S. July employment report to show a gain of 200,000 jobs
Our provisional forecast for the July jobs report when it is released on Friday implies a net increase in total employment of 200,000 jobs with an easing in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4%. In addition, we forecast a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, which should translate to a 3.7% ... READ MORE >
U.S. June employment report: Look for robust hiring above 750,000
We expect a total change in employment of 750,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.6% in the U.S. June employment report. The major economic narrative to emerge from the summer hiring reports will likely be that consumers are flush with cash and pivoting to demand services, which will bolster ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.0% for February is likely an undercount of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. While the topline change in net employment after adding in back revisions was 1.072 million, it will likely be ... READ MORE >
Hiring expected to slow in September jobs report
The labor market is expected to continue to lose steam in September, with the total change in employment likely increasing by 115,000 jobs on the month, and the unemployment rate likely rising to 3.8%. Given the slowdown in domestic manufacturing activity and goods production, we note there is downside ... READ MORE >