After nearly two years of raising the federal funds policy rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week. … READ MORE >
federal funds rate
U.S. economic outlook: Expansion continues into 2024
Expect the economy to settle into its long-term growth rate of around 1.8% next year. Read our forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment, the dollar, interest rates and fiscal policy. … READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Moderation in hiring as wage gains outpace inflation
The economy added 150,000 jobs in October with the unemployment rate at 3.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. … READ MORE >
R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and economic growth
Known by economists as r-star, it has risen to a range between 1.75% and 2% in our estimation, a marked increase from the 0.5% that had prevailed over the previous 15 years. … READ MORE >
Why the Fed should lift its 2% inflation target
We expect the Fed to hold its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.5% at its meeting next week and would advise the Fed to begin shaping expectations about a likely cyclical peak at that range. … READ MORE >
Rates outlook: As economy enters glide path, bond market hedges its bets
Even as the economy shows positive trends like slowing inflation and a healthy labor market, the bond market is showing anxiety. … READ MORE >
Catch-25: Fed hikes rates amid financial stability risk
The Federal Reserve finds itself as it lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid a quickly evolving global banking crisis. … READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Policy rate moving higher as Fed may prepare to slow pace of price stability campaign
We expect the Federal Reserve to increase its policy rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% when it publishes its policy decision on Nov. 2. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will almost surely utilize the press conference following the FOMC meeting to note that at one point it will make sense to slow the pace of rate hikes as the central bank ascertains the lagged impact of past rate hikes on the real economy. This will be paired with the text of the policy statement, where the Fed will likely retain language stating “that ongoing increases in the target rate will be appropriate.” … READ MORE >