Financial conditions continue to deteriorate as uncertainty and volatility creep back into the equity, bond and money markets. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Fed holds rates steady with a stagflation-lite forecast
The Fed’s statement and forecasts draw a picture of a central bank that is on its heels and looking to ascertain the difference between signal and noise amid rising uncertainty as it determines its policy … READ MORE >
Retail sales rebound, easing some concerns over growth
We do not expect the data to alter the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at its meeting this week. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level since early 2023
Most notably, inflation expectations worsened, with the 12-month gauge advancing to 4.9% and the five-to-10 metric increasing to 3.9%. … READ MORE >
The waiting is the hardest part: Fed can’t do anything about tariffs
We expect the Fed to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% while adjusting its Summary of Economic Projections to anticipate slower growth at or near 2%. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as tariffs cloud outlook
The Bank of Canada reduced its key interest rate to 2.75 per cent on Wednesday amid tariffs and ongoing trade tensions. Rising uncertainty clouds Canada’s economic outlook as U.S. tariffs threaten to raise prices while thwarting growth. If further trade measures are introduced next month, expect the Bank of Canada … … READ MORE >
Quantum of solace: Inflation cools ahead of tariff-induced price increases
Service inflation and rents, though, are still advancing a well above 4%, which in conjunction with slowing growth does not bode well for the economy … READ MORE >
Market minute: Risk of stagnation, stagflation and slower growth
Despite the trading community pricing in three rate cuts this year, employment, wage and inflation data imply a Fed that may be reluctant to reduce rates into an economy that is slowing amid sticky inflation. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Concern over government shutdown showing up in money markets
The one-month T-bill rate of 4.29% is now below the 4.30% three-month rate and about to breach the Federal Reserve’s repo-facility award rate of 4.25%. … READ MORE >
Solid labor demand persists as U.S. economy adds 151,000 jobs in February
The American economy added 151,000 jobs in February, a sign that demand for labor remains solid amid the significant policy changes in Washington. … READ MORE >