Foreign investment in U.S. financial securities and direct investment in its corporations are outstripping U.S. holdings of foreign assets by $26 trillion … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Market Minute: Global central bank outlook
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
As tariffs take hold, global central banks will adopt divergent policies
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Cooler spending and inflation data reflect slowing economy
May income, spending and inflation data points toward a consumer adjusting to a more challenging economic environment and should dampen talk of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The perils of appointing a shadow Fed chair
Such an appointment would cut against the grain of Fed independence and its institutional credibility developed over the past half century. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why are mortgages so expensive?
Mortgage rates have retreated somewhat since their 2023 peak but remain higher than what we would normally expect. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shocks and inflation expectations
The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East over the weekend could very well be the next step in a broader global supply shock. … READ MORE >
The Fed holds rates steady, but its forecast has the whiff of stagflation
In holding the policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, the Federal Open Market Committee also signaled the possibility of two rate cuts this year, … READ MORE >
The U.S. is in better position to endure an oil and gas shock
Overall, the impact of the most recent Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy will be muted, but the risks of the conflict expanding remain. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Patience is a virtue for the Fed
Based on our own model and the central bank’s recent rhetoric, the Fed will be and should be in no hurry to cut rates given the risk around the economic outlook. … READ MORE >