Inflation dynamics inside the August PCE report illustrated stubborn service sector inflation that increased from 3.5% to 3.6% while one can observe rising goods prices. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Market Minute: A liquidity squeeze in the money markets
Money market funds are taking funds that were parked in the Federal Reserve’s overnight repo facility and using them to buy the newly issued T-bills. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts its policy rate a quarter point amid growing tension
It would not be surprising to see market players assume that the de-facto inflation target is moving higher, toward 3%. … READ MORE >
Stagflation is the story in August CPI as discretionary service prices surge
Demand for discretionary services remains stubbornly strong despite a slower pace of hiring and a softer pace of wage growth. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations and the credibility of Fed policy
Does the Fed have the credibility not only to cut its policy rate next week but also to reduce it further in the following months, to the long-run neutral rate of 3% without stoking inflation? … READ MORE >
Labor market loses steam as hiring rises by 22,000 in August
The slow hire, slow fire economy remained intact in August as the demand for new workers continued to sag, resulting in the creation of 22,000 jobs. … READ MORE >
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >
Rising inflation, increased spending complicate Fed’s next decision
While nominal gains in spending and income look strong on the topline, adjusting for inflation is necessary—and subsequently implies an economy that is growing just above 1 percent. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The perils of relying on T-bills to finance the deficit
Reliance on the front end of the Treasury curve, and a drawdown in the repo facility, open the government to the risk of increased volatility, … READ MORE >
Powell opens door to September cut as Fed shifts to a balanced 2% target
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday gave investors and policymakers the words that they wanted to hear on a possible September rate cut. … READ MORE >