A neutral federal funds rate in the range of a 3% to 3.5% nominal rate is more appropriate than the zero real (inflation-adjusted) terminal rate that some are calling for. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Dude, that was one flawed CPI report
Growth in inflation eased to a 2.7% pace overall, and to 2.6% excluding food or energy. Because of an inability to retroactively collect the October data, it is difficult to precisely identify why top-line inflation slowed. … READ MORE >
The jobs data is out. If you are not confused, you are not paying attention.
Little clarity was provided by the combined October and November jobs data. The low-fire, low-hire jobs market remains intact as the unemployment rate continues to climb. … READ MORE >
The growth of government debt and its consequences for financial markets
The United States is borrowing roughly $7 billion per day to finance its operations with the deficit heading toward $2 trillion this fiscal year. … READ MORE >
Fed delivers hawkish cut, raising the bar for future reductions
The tone and tenor of the FOMC’s statement and remarks by Chairman Jerome Powell afterward substantially raised the bar for a rate cut in January. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada prudently holds interest rate ahead of 2026 challenges
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent—a prudent pause as the country’s labour market remains soft and unemployment remains elevated. … READ MORE >
Job openings jump, but the labor market’s weak spot shows
Much of the gains in nob openings appeared concentrated among small businesses, most likely in leisure and hospitality, pointing to seasonal rather than structural hiring momentum. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Deteriorating expectations on inflation and household finances
The Federal Reserve will have a difficult choice of either fighting inflation or hoping to revive a sluggish labor market when it meets this week. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Factions at the Fed as the fog begins to lift
Expect a contentious Fed meeting next week, with the central bank lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points. … READ MORE >
Consumer spending in September was flat with holiday season approaching
Recent consumer spending data shows that the condition of U.S. households down market is sour at best and weak at worst. … READ MORE >