When the consumer price index for June is released on Tuesday, we expect a top-line monthly increase of 0.3% and 0.2% on the core, which will translate to 2.6% year-over-year increase and 2.9% on the core. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
U.S. economic outlook: Stagflation lite to describe second half
We now expect growth to slow to 1.1% this year, inflation to rise above 3% and a 4.4% unemployment rate. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Our year-end 10-year rate forecast
We expect the 10-year yield to remain in a range between 4% and 4.5% amid of elevated volatility and now expect it to finish the year near 4.35% with risk of a lower rate. … READ MORE >
Policy uncertainty putting U.S. international investment position at risk
Foreign investment in U.S. financial securities and direct investment in its corporations are outstripping U.S. holdings of foreign assets by $26 trillion … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Global central bank outlook
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Global central bank outlook: Divergent paths on rates
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Cooler spending and inflation data reflect slowing economy
May income, spending and inflation data points toward a consumer adjusting to a more challenging economic environment and should dampen talk of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The perils of appointing a shadow Fed chair
Such an appointment would cut against the grain of Fed independence and its institutional credibility developed over the past half century. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why are mortgages so expensive?
Mortgage rates have retreated somewhat since their 2023 peak but remain higher than what we would normally expect. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shocks and inflation expectations
The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East over the weekend could very well be the next step in a broader global supply shock. … READ MORE >