A lot is happening in the economy, but one trend has become clear: The economy is slowing but not enough to guarantee a rate cut. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
In the July CPI, the temperature is rising in the core
The U.S. consumer price index in July saw a meaningful increase, driven by sticky service sector pricing and tariff-induced price increases, which are all over the report. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. economy stuck in neutral, key Citi index suggests
Recent developments imply a possible economic turning point in the business cycle—and understanding economic surprise indices is key. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Manufacturing stuck in slow growth despite increased shipments
While shipments of durable goods manufactured in the U.S. are increasing, it’s clear that manufacturing is stuck in a period of slow growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What’s keeping interest rates so high? The risk premium.
The market appears to be pricing in the possibility of additional rate hikes should inflation continue to increase as tariffs are implemented. … READ MORE >
The big chill hits the labor market as job creation cools in July
Job creation in July slowed to 73,000 in July on the back of a large downward revision of 258,000 in May and June, capturing a big chill spreading out over the domestic economy and labor market. In addition, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, but that increase was partially masked … … READ MORE >
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge accelerates in June as tariffs bite
Inflation picked up in June, driven largely by tariffs, according to the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. … READ MORE >
The Fed holds rates steady as two board members dissent
The OMC held its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% on Wednesday as it slightly opened the door to a rate cut this fall., … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Stagflation and dissent at the FOMC
We expect the federal funds rate to remain in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the FOMC meeting this week and we do not expect Chairman Jerome Powell to imply that a September rate cut is in the cards either. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Demand-side inflation implies Fed still has work to do
When the consumer price index for June is released on Tuesday, we expect a top-line monthly increase of 0.3% and 0.2% on the core, which will translate to 2.6% year-over-year increase and 2.9% on the core. … READ MORE >