The slow hire, slow fire economy remained intact in August as the demand for new workers continued to sag, resulting in the creation of 22,000 jobs. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >
Rising inflation, increased spending complicate Fed’s next decision
While nominal gains in spending and income look strong on the topline, adjusting for inflation is necessary—and subsequently implies an economy that is growing just above 1 percent. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The perils of relying on T-bills to finance the deficit
Reliance on the front end of the Treasury curve, and a drawdown in the repo facility, open the government to the risk of increased volatility, … READ MORE >
Powell opens door to September cut as Fed shifts to a balanced 2% target
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday gave investors and policymakers the words that they wanted to hear on a possible September rate cut. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Diverging inflation expectations
Policy decisions by the Federal Reserve will rest upon whether it thinks that higher tariffs will result in a one-time increase in prices or persistent inflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Powell at Jackson Hole
The retirement of baby boomers and immigration enforcement are reducing the supply of workers, making monetary policy decisions that much more challenging. … READ MORE >
Wrong data at the right time: Mixed data complicates Fed’s decision
A lot is happening in the economy, but one trend has become clear: The economy is slowing but not enough to guarantee a rate cut. … READ MORE >
In the July CPI, the temperature is rising in the core
The U.S. consumer price index in July saw a meaningful increase, driven by sticky service sector pricing and tariff-induced price increases, which are all over the report. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. economy stuck in neutral, key Citi index suggests
Recent developments imply a possible economic turning point in the business cycle—and understanding economic surprise indices is key. … READ MORE >