We anticipate that more challenging income dynamics underlying the data will result in a slowing of GDP back toward 2.5% to close out a strong year. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
A hawkish Fed holds rates steady amid rising inflation
The Federal Open Market Committee kept its policy rate in a range between 3.75% and 4% on Wednesday as it opted for the status quo days before the midterm elections. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada raises interest rate to 2.5%—with more hikes to come
The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate to 2.5 per cent after seven consecutive holds due to persistently high oil prices amid stronger-than-expected economic growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The rising cost of inaction by the Fed
We expect the Fed to hold its overnight policy rate within the current range of 3.75% to 4.0% at its Wednesday meeting. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Get ready for a consequential week
Next week’s economic releases and policy decisions will affect asset pricing and expectations for interest rates. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Home ownership and 7% mortgage rates
Higher long-term rates will be a fact of life for the foreseeable future, offering no relief on housing costs. … READ MORE >
Low-hire, low-fire labor market continues in September jobs report
the slowing in the top-line estimate should reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not increase interest rates at its meeting at the end of the month. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing activity continues to grow amid rising prices
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index came in at 54.5, little changed from 54.6 in August, while new orders rose to 55.3 from 53.7. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rate hikes coming to a central bank near you
We expect global central banks to raise their policy rates to counter the energy shock and the inflation that is once more taking hold. … READ MORE >
What do higher yields look like? Our model shows their impact.
We modeled a serios of shocks to identify the impact on growth, employment and inflation. The results show the challenge of bringing down inflation. … READ MORE >