The personal consumption expenditures index arrived hot for the second straight month in April while inflation-adjusted spending cooled. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Market Minute: A new inflation regime awaits Warsh
Five-year breakevens since Feb. 27 have increased from 2.445% to 2.72%, the 10-year from 2.25% to 2.5% and the 30-year from 2.19% to 2.3%. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as debate intensifies
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its policy rate between 3.5% and 3.75% on Wednesday amid vigorous debate. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: FOMC preview and Powell’s big decision
We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its federal funds policy rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The Fed’s SOMA holdings and the challenge of balance sheet run-off
The System Open Market Account’s weighted average years to maturity is 14.56 years—which is heavily weighted to long-term securities. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Kevin Warsh and Fed independence
The nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair will face pointed questions before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Don’t ignore short-term inflation expectations
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, inflation expectations for the year ahead have spiked to 5%. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again amid global economic disruptions
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate amid domestic economic slack and wider disruptions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East. … READ MORE >