The producer price index was unchanged on the month, while the core metric was running at the target level, rising by 0.2%. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Seasonal distortions offer misguided look at U.S. labor market conditions
The U.S. economy is in a good spot heading into the second half of 2026 as the labor market is at full employment while job growth and wages do not imply second-round risks to the economy via the inflation channel. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Lagging wages are the root of the affordability crisis
Although core inflation looks a bit more benign than topline inflation, RSM expects July’s U.S. labor data to reflect flat growth in real wages amid an ongoing affordability crisis. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The Warsh effect and U.S. financial conditions
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says he wants the financial markets to figure it all out without the forward guidance of the Fed. … READ MORE >
A hawkish Fed holds rates steady amid growing dissent
The three dissents in the 9-3 vote, though, came from regional presidents— Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack—and not from the Board of Governors. … READ MORE >
Parsimony is a feature, not a bug, at the new Fed
The major change in the Fed’s approach has been the partial removal of forward guidance. The result is rising uncertainty and volatility in the 2-year Treasury. … READ MORE >
RSM’s U.S. midyear economic update: Supply shocks ease
We expect that rate to accelerate to 2.5% in the current quarter and 2.1% during the final three months of the year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: We expect a gain of 180,000 jobs in June
The gains will be driven by health care, education, government, leisure and hospitality, as well as the goods-producing and construction sectors. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why so hawkish?
A simple look at PCE, core PCE, CPI, core CPI, PPI, and core PPI illustrates that they all reside above the current federal funds policy rate, not to mention the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. … READ MORE >
Fed tilts hawkish as Warsh promises price stability
While we think that the July FOMC meeting will be a status quo event, the September meeting will be a live policy meeting where the committee could see movement toward a rate hike if not an outright increase. … READ MORE >