We expect global central banks to raise their policy rates to counter the energy shock and the inflation that is once more taking hold. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
What do higher yields look like? Our model shows their impact.
We modeled a serios of shocks to identify the impact on growth, employment and inflation. The results show the challenge of bringing down inflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Financial conditions show ample room for Fed rate hike
We expect the Fed to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 3.7% to 4% at its meeting on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Toward synchronized global rate hikes … almost
This week we get the Bank of England, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions that will lead to a further resetting of prices across asset classes. … READ MORE >
Energy pushes producer prices higher, but core cools
Headline producer prices rose 0.4% in August, most of the increase came from rising energy prices. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2%, a tenth below expectations. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation data set to support Fed rate hike
Economists expect a 0.4% monthly increase in both top-line PPI and CPI when the data is released this week. … READ MORE >
Fed rate hike looming as hiring increases by 162,000
The American labor market rests at or near full employment. A 4.1% unemployment rate, a labor force increase of 683,000, and an advance of 162,000 in monthly hiring all point to a solid working definition of what that means in 2026. Once one adjusts for a two-month upward revision of … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: August U.S. jobs report preview
We are forecasting a 25,000-job increase and a 4.1% unemployment rate when the August jobs data is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again as volatility threatens growth
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate again as it works to show stability amid ongoing trade volatility and economic uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Strong manufacturing and jobs data ahead of Fed meeting
Tariff refunds, rising business and government spending on defense and AI-related products have been the main tailwinds for overall manufacturing demand. … READ MORE >