A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Don’t ignore short-term inflation expectations
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, inflation expectations for the year ahead have spiked to 5%. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again amid global economic disruptions
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate amid domestic economic slack and wider disruptions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fed rate cuts on hold as inflation risks mount
Expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday while raising its inflation forecast and reducing its estimates for growth and employment. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows the calm before the storm
On a month-over-month basis, the top-line PCE index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by 0.3%, with the core rate excluding food and energy rising by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Is Kevin Warsh a man for all seasons, or a chameleon?
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas offered his thoughts on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to become the next Federal Reserve chair. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Revising our Fed rate call and our growth scenarios
We are updating our FOMC rate forecast to expect one 25 basis-point rate cut this year, either at the July or September meeting. … READ MORE >
Fed puts rate cuts on pause until further notice
Should the economy outperform this year, then the risk is not around rate cuts but rather no cut at all or even a late-year increase. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again—and may stay put this year
The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent. At this juncture—all things being equal—we do not expect the central bank to change its policy rate this year. … READ MORE >