While nominal gains in spending and income look strong on the topline, adjusting for inflation is necessary—and subsequently implies an economy that is growing just above 1 percent. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Market Minute: The perils of relying on T-bills to finance the deficit
Reliance on the front end of the Treasury curve, and a drawdown in the repo facility, open the government to the risk of increased volatility, … READ MORE >
Powell opens door to September cut as Fed shifts to a balanced 2% target
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday gave investors and policymakers the words that they wanted to hear on a possible September rate cut. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Diverging inflation expectations
Policy decisions by the Federal Reserve will rest upon whether it thinks that higher tariffs will result in a one-time increase in prices or persistent inflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Powell at Jackson Hole
The retirement of baby boomers and immigration enforcement are reducing the supply of workers, making monetary policy decisions that much more challenging. … READ MORE >
Wrong data at the right time: Mixed data complicates Fed’s decision
A lot is happening in the economy, but one trend has become clear: The economy is slowing but not enough to guarantee a rate cut. … READ MORE >
In the July CPI, the temperature is rising in the core
The U.S. consumer price index in July saw a meaningful increase, driven by sticky service sector pricing and tariff-induced price increases, which are all over the report. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. economy stuck in neutral, key Citi index suggests
Recent developments imply a possible economic turning point in the business cycle—and understanding economic surprise indices is key. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Manufacturing stuck in slow growth despite increased shipments
While shipments of durable goods manufactured in the U.S. are increasing, it’s clear that manufacturing is stuck in a period of slow growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What’s keeping interest rates so high? The risk premium.
The market appears to be pricing in the possibility of additional rate hikes should inflation continue to increase as tariffs are implemented. … READ MORE >