Given the ever-widening scope of U.S. tariffs, with the next round set to take effect on April 2, the risks to the economic outlook through the financial channel are elevated and rising. … READ MORE >
financial conditions
Fed survey shows further improvement in financial conditions
The worst of monetary tightening for the financial market may be behind us, according to the latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released by the Federal Reserve … READ MORE >
Financial conditions turn positive amid economic resilience
For the first time since February 2022, the RSM US Financial Conditions Index has turned positive amid a robust economy, strong labor market, easing inflation and rising real wages. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index moving toward neutral
With the money market at normal levels of risk, and with surging equities balancing out the caution displayed in the bond market, our composite financial conditions market is fast approaching neutral. … READ MORE >
About that recession: Resilience now, risks ahead
Despite elevated inflation and interest rates, as well as tightening financial conditions and softening demand for loans, the economy has chugged along, thanks in no small part to strong consumer spending. … READ MORE >
Economic implications of further turmoil in the banking sector
The latest bank seizure should bolster confidence in the ability of the federal government and systemically important financial institutions to address any subsequent landmines among small and medium-size lenders … READ MORE >
Tighter financial conditions threaten Canada’s growth
The RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index remains at 1.4 standard deviations below normal, indicating that greater risk than normal is being priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >
The great deposit migration and emergency borrowing at the Fed discount window
In the past week alone, the Federal Reserve’s loans outstanding to the financial system have ballooned to about $318 billion, up from $15 billion a week ago. … READ MORE >
U.S. financial markets in the new year
Financial markets have started the year facing a host of challenges, including the prospect of a stand-off over the debt ceiling in a divided Congress and the possibility of a recession later this year. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions and Canada’s real economy
Tightening financial conditions are hurting the Canadian economy to the point where the rising risk of a recession and a housing contraction much larger than anticipated cannot be discounted. … READ MORE >