The index showed that labor cost growth fell to 1.0% on a quarterly basis, and to 5.1% on a year-ago basis for all workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Cost Index released on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
FOMC
FOMC preview: Fed to slow pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points
Our base case remains that the Federal Reserve’s policy rate will peak between 5% and 5.25% and stay there until early next year. … READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Policy rate moving higher as Fed may prepare to slow pace of price stability campaign
We expect the Federal Reserve to increase its policy rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% when it publishes its policy decision on Nov. 2. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will almost surely utilize the press conference following the FOMC meeting to note that at one point it will make sense to slow the pace of rate hikes as the central bank ascertains the lagged impact of past rate hikes on the real economy. This will be paired with the text of the policy statement, where the Fed will likely retain language stating “that ongoing increases in the target rate will be appropriate.” … READ MORE >
Recession debate: What does the forward market say about the business cycle?
The forward market implies that the conventional recession definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth is not yet consistent with an actual recession. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision preview: Fed to hike lending rate .75% next week
A 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate will be on the table during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, but we expect the central bank will hike the policy rate by 75 basis points. … READ MORE >
FOMC decision: Policy, price stability and balance sheet strategy
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed that it intends to achieve price stability, maximum sustainable employment and long-term growth despite the risk of a higher unemployment and a hard landing of the economy. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Powell caught in the crossfire
Next Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will result in the central bank hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of between 0.25% and 0.5%. … READ MORE >
Fed slows asset purchases as it moves to end pandemic-era accommodation
The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it later this month would start paring back its pandemic-era monetary accommodation even as it held its policy rate between zero and 25 basis points. … READ MORE >