We are updating our FOMC rate forecast to expect one 25 basis-point rate cut this year, either at the July or September meeting. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Fed puts rate cuts on pause until further notice
Should the economy outperform this year, then the risk is not around rate cuts but rather no cut at all or even a late-year increase. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again—and may stay put this year
The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent. At this juncture—all things being equal—we do not expect the central bank to change its policy rate this year. … READ MORE >
Get the popcorn ready for a prime-time FOMC meeting
While the FOMC is expected to keep its policy rate between a range of 3.5% and 3.75%, the real action will be at the news conference afterward. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fed independence and the sum of all fears
Today, the sum of all fears among central bankers and economists can in large part be traced to the mistakes of the Arthur Burns era at the Fed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: How sticky wages and inflation affect interest rates
A neutral federal funds rate in the range of a 3% to 3.5% nominal rate is more appropriate than the zero real (inflation-adjusted) terminal rate that some are calling for. … READ MORE >
Dude, that was one flawed CPI report
Growth in inflation eased to a 2.7% pace overall, and to 2.6% excluding food or energy. Because of an inability to retroactively collect the October data, it is difficult to precisely identify why top-line inflation slowed. … READ MORE >
Fed delivers hawkish cut, raising the bar for future reductions
The tone and tenor of the FOMC’s statement and remarks by Chairman Jerome Powell afterward substantially raised the bar for a rate cut in January. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada prudently holds interest rate ahead of 2026 challenges
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent—a prudent pause as the country’s labour market remains soft and unemployment remains elevated. … READ MORE >
Job openings jump, but the labor market’s weak spot shows
Much of the gains in nob openings appeared concentrated among small businesses, most likely in leisure and hospitality, pointing to seasonal rather than structural hiring momentum. … READ MORE >