Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) fell to 1.7% in April thanks to the removal of the consumer carbon price and lower crude oil prices. For now, price increases associated with U.S. tariffs seem to have been kept at bay. The end of the consumer carbon tax should continue to apply … … READ MORE >
interest rates
Market Minute: Something’s got to give in financial markets
Now, as the impact of tariffs begins to hit consumers, it would not be surprising if investors push yields higher and the dollar lower. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations surge as effective tariff rate hits 17.8%
The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Canada’s trade diversification away from U.S. as tariff pain remains
Canada’s latest trade data provides an indicator of the diversification away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets as tariff tensions continue to simmer between the longtime trade partners. In March, Canada’s merchandise exports to countries other than the U.S. surged by 24.8 per cent on a month-over-month basis—the second-largest increase in recorded … … READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate rises as U.S. tariffs strain key industries
Canada’s latest jobs report showcased the impact of U.S. tariffs as key industries saw high job losses while the overall unemployment rate rose. … READ MORE >
Fed maintains rates but signals risk of stagflation
The Federal Open Market Committee held its policy rate steady in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% on Wednesday. But the Fed updated its policy statement in which it highlighted the risk of stagflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: April was the cruelest month. Now, all eyes are on the Fed.
We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% with little to no change in the policy statement when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on May 6 and 7. … READ MORE >
On the knife’s edge: U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter
The American economy is navigating an air-pocket that has caused it to rapidly lose altitude. It has entered a period that is best characterized as stagflation and that will in the near term limit the degrees of freedom on policy at the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
What the Liberals’ election win could mean for Canada’s economy
Following the Liberal Party’s election win, a Mark Carney-led government could introduce ambitious economic strategies to contend with ongoing uncertainty. … READ MORE >