The Federal Reserve is on the verge of achieving that rarest of economic feats: A soft landing. The rapid disinflation that the Fed has engineered over the past two years mirrors that of the 1990s—the last time the central bank achieved such a difficult feat. That disinflation set the stage for a ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Canada’s consumer price index reaches 1.9% as tax holiday dampens inflation
Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) reached 1.9 per cent in January thanks to higher gasoline prices, which were offset by the recently concluded tax holiday. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose to 1.7 per cent. Inflation has been at or below the Bank of Canada’s 2 per cent target for six months in a row, ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate falls to 6.6% as business sentiment improves
Canada’s economic resurgence appears well under way. The economy added 76,000 jobs in January, the employment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 61.1 per cent and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 6.6 per cent. The unemployment rate fell back to a level last seen in October 2024—and ... READ MORE >
Job growth cools in January amid revisions to labor force estimate
The economic tailwind that has supported an average increase of 3.1% in household consumption since 2023 continued into January as robust demand for labor resulted in a 143,000 increase in total employment and an unemployment rate of 4%. The January jobs report, released on Friday, shows a resilient ... READ MORE >
Labor demand cools in December
The significant drop in job openings in December extended the downward trend in labor demand toward normalization since the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2022. Job openings fell to 7.6 million from 8.2 million in November, near the pre-pandemic level and providing the Fed with more relief regarding ... READ MORE >
Even with pause, Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s response establish volatile new economic reality
Editor's note: This article has been updated following news of the pause in implementing tariffs. After a weekend that saw U.S. President Donald Trump impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau put forward retaliatory measures, the widely feared tariff war appears on hold ... READ MORE >
U.S. households show robust gains on spending and income
Further evidence of robust household income and spending growth was on display inside the December U.S. personal income, spending and PCE report released on Friday. In a separate report, the Employment Cost Index increased by 0.9% in the fourth quarter with overall compensation increasing by 3.8% and ... READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate cuts as inflation flattens out and policy changes loom
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% and said it would remain on pause in the near term. The Fed’s decisions set up an inevitable clash with President Trump, who is on record as wanting lower rates in contrast with the hawkish pause adopted by the ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate to 3% amid price stability, trade policy uncertainty
The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate to three per cent on Wednesday, but trade policy uncertainty looms over Canada’s economic outlook and clouds the future rate path. The 25 basis point cut was widely anticipated as both inflation and inflation expectations moderated while interest rates ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The questions that Powell will not want to answer
When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell meets the news media today, he will face difficult questions on trade, tariffs, immigration and fiscal policy. His answers to those questions will drive whatever volatility takes place across asset classes given the sensitivity of the U.S. 10-year Treasury ... READ MORE >