Housing starts and building permits in the United States fell in October for the second straight month largely because of the two hurricanes in the South and the recent rebound in mortgage rates. Housing starts, a key indicator of residential real estate performance within gross domestic product, ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Canada’s prices for services and shelter decelerated in October
Canada’s consumer price index accelerated in October, but that increase will not deter a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December, though the size of the cut is up for debate. Canada’s CPI accelerated to 2.0 per cent, up from 1.6 per cent in September, because of a smaller decline in gasoline prices ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales decelerated in October
Retail sales growth was softer in October, following a stronger-than-expected September report, which had sharp upward revisions, the Census Bureau reported on Friday. The mixed results should not change the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate in December. That probability has ... READ MORE >
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
The disinflationary trend that has worked its way through the economy for much of the year modestly abated in October as the top-line consumer price index increased by 0.2% and the core rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, those figures increased by 2.6% and 3.3%, ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rate by a quarter point ahead of a possible pause
The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Slowing inflation and strong productivity gains imply that the Fed has ample room to keep cutting rates next year. The major takeaway from the policy statement is ... READ MORE >
The increased attractiveness of corporate bonds as the Fed cuts rates
We expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. We anticipate an uneventful meeting given its proximity to the presidential election and the flexibility that the Fed will need heading into its December meeting ... READ MORE >
Distortions in the October U.S. jobs report mask underlying strength
The October jobs report is to be taken seriously but not literally. Once one adds the downward revision of 112,000 jobs for August and September to the 12,000 gain in October, there was a decline in total employment of 100,000 inside the report. We would urge investors, firm managers and ... READ MORE >
Strong gains in Income and spending boost economic growth in September
Robust spending, increasing income and the re-establishment of price stability amid strong productivity gains are the primary factors shaping the economic narrative. American households are well positioned to keep spending at a 3% to 3.5% pace as inflation moves back to 2% and real wages continue ... READ MORE >
American economic outperformance continues as GDP expands by 2.8%
American economic outperformance continued into the third quarter as the first estimate of U.S. gross domestic product showed a 2.8% increase. The gains were driven by robust household spending, which increased by 3.7%, strong nonresidential investment, which rose by 3.3% featuring a robust 11.1% rise ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence strengthens despite cooling labor demand
The drop in job openings and the rebound in consumer confidence are consistent with a soft-landing scenario, which we believe has been the reality in recent months. While the lower number of job vacancies signaled reduced demand pressure in September, hirings improved while job quits continued to ... READ MORE >