A neutral federal funds rate in the range of a 3% to 3.5% nominal rate is more appropriate than the zero real (inflation-adjusted) terminal rate that some are calling for. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Dude, that was one flawed CPI report
Growth in inflation eased to a 2.7% pace overall, and to 2.6% excluding food or energy. Because of an inability to retroactively collect the October data, it is difficult to precisely identify why top-line inflation slowed. … READ MORE >
Fed delivers hawkish cut, raising the bar for future reductions
The tone and tenor of the FOMC’s statement and remarks by Chairman Jerome Powell afterward substantially raised the bar for a rate cut in January. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada prudently holds interest rate ahead of 2026 challenges
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent—a prudent pause as the country’s labour market remains soft and unemployment remains elevated. … READ MORE >
Job openings jump, but the labor market’s weak spot shows
Much of the gains in nob openings appeared concentrated among small businesses, most likely in leisure and hospitality, pointing to seasonal rather than structural hiring momentum. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut
Investors are now pricing in the near certainty of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its meeting on Dec. 9-10. … READ MORE >
Retail sales fall below forecasts as demand slows
The shift in the spending cycle because of tariffs might explain why consumers pulled back in September after front-running new tariffs over the summer. … READ MORE >
RSM’s U.S. outlook for 2026: An acceleration in growth
We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, with the PCE inflation rate reaching 2.7% and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Split in FOMC points to a pause in cuts, October minutes show
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s October meeting provided unmistakable evidence of a split between hawks and doves, with a slight tilt toward the hawks. … READ MORE >
Falling demand suggests further labor market deterioration
Fresh data from ADP, Revelio Labs and Challenger, Gray & Christmas all point to the prospect that weakness in labor demand is becoming entrenched and is not temporary. … READ MORE >