We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% with little to no change in the policy statement when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on May 6 and 7. … READ MORE >
interest rates
On the knife’s edge: U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter
The American economy is navigating an air-pocket that has caused it to rapidly lose altitude. It has entered a period that is best characterized as stagflation and that will in the near term limit the degrees of freedom on policy at the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
What the Liberals’ election win could mean for Canada’s economy
Following the Liberal Party’s election win, a Mark Carney-led government could introduce ambitious economic strategies to contend with ongoing uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Introducing the RSM US Recession Monitor
After significant disruption to trade policy and financial markets this year, we now forecast a 55% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A word about central bank independence
Cutting the policy rate into conditions best described as stagflation would only intensify that movement, driving capital flows into euros, yen and francs while driving interest rates higher. … READ MORE >
Canada’s CPI slows amid rising Buy Canadian movement, cooling global outlook
Canada’s latest consumer price index data shows the influence of the Buy Canadian movement and the effects of global economic uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment plunges amid sweeping tariffs
The consumer sentiment index in April fell to its lowest level since 2022, plunging to 50.8 from 57.0 in March. At the same time, inflation expectations rose to their highest levels since the 1980s. … READ MORE >
March inflation moderated in the last clean report before tariffs
Investors and policymakers should anticipate top-line and core inflation to advance at a 4% to 4.5% pace by the middle of the summer. … READ MORE >
Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March as more pain looms due to U.S. tariffs
Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March as U.S. tariffs came into effect. Expect more layoffs in the coming months as tariffs cause widespread economic pains. … READ MORE >
Canada spared from worst of new U.S. tariffs—but economic challenges remain
The absence of new tariffs is a small consolation prize for Canada as the U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs on most countries, but economic challenges remain. … READ MORE >