American middle market businesses are facing fraught times, characterized by tightening financial conditions, a shortage of workers and rising political tensions. How to make sense of it all? Join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Private investment and the reintroduction of risk
The end of hyper-globalization heralds the end of an era of low inflation and low interest rates. Regime changes in global trade, growth and liquidity, along with a significant increase in geopolitical tensions, are reintroducing political and economic risk. To manage this risk, middle ... READ MORE >
RSM’s economic outlook for Canada in eight charts
Economies respond to financial conditions, which are determined by market expectations for monetary policy. With inflation still elevated and demand surging in Canada, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates to cool an overheating economy. While the Canadian economy may ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits fall as the correction continues
Housing starts dropped for the third month in a row in November as the housing market continued to be in correction mode, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday. There were 1.4 million residential starts on an annualized basis, falling short of the 1.7 million that we estimate are needed to meet ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions and Canada’s real economy
Tightening financial conditions are hurting the Canadian economy to the point where the rising risk of a recession and a housing contraction much larger than anticipated cannot be discounted. Although we expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate to a peak of 4.75% early next year, after ... READ MORE >
FOMC decision: Fed lifts policy rate to range of 4.25% to 4.5%
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday laid the groundwork for an eventual pause in interest rate increases early next year, even as it indicated it intends to continue lifting rates into a slowdown. The projection of a slowdown, which is in the Summary of Economic Projections released after the Federal ... READ MORE >
November CPI: Easing inflation amid surging housing costs poses dilemma for Fed
On first sight, the U.S. November consumer price index would suggest relief among policymakers following the second straight inflation report that came in lower than expected. With the top-line figure easing to a 7.1% annual increase and core inflation falling to 6% on a year-ago basis, the data ... READ MORE >
Did fiscal spending go too far? Assessing the global economy.
Fiscal responses by governments around the world during the pandemic were unprecedented. Many governments put forward anywhere between 20% and 30% of gross domestic product in spending to mitigate the impact of economic shutdowns. Now, after months of elevated inflation and surging interest rates, ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Policy rate to increase by 50 basis points
Two weeks after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed to slower interest rate increases, the central bank is poised to do just that when the Federal Open Market Committee meets this week and raises its policy rate by 50 basis points. Such an increase would follow a series of 75 basis-point ... READ MORE >
Producer price inflation hotter than expected ahead of Fed’s meeting
Wholesale prices grew faster than expected in November, driven mostly by services which have become the new focus of the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation. The producer price index for final demand rose by 0.3% in November and by 7.4% year-over-year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported ... READ MORE >