There were 9.8 million job openings in May, down from 10.3 million in April. That brought the ratio between openings and unemployed workers down to 1.61 from 1.82.
Read more perspectives on economic headwinds facing the middle market.
On top of that is a hotter-than-expected service sector in June, according to data from the Institute of Supply Management. Service-provider sentiment grew at a much faster rate of 53.9 from 50.3 in May on the heels of better production, more orders and stronger employment.
Barring any shocks from the payroll and inflation reports later this month, we expect the Fed to hike its policy rate one more time, in July, to bring the rate to 5.5%.
As of now, we do not think another hike in September or after that this year is going to take place as the economy in our estimation will be a lot weaker when the next rate decision comes.
There is more impact from tightening monetary policy and fading excess savings to come as American consumers are heading toward the back-to-school shopping season, when we expect a decline in spending and, as a result, weaker job gains.
