Initial jobless claims last week remained unchanged at 264,000, a figure that exceeded expectations and suggested that the robust labor market is softening. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Housing starts and permits spike in May as sentiment improves
There were 1.6 million new housing starts in May—the most in two years and a 21.7% increase from the previous month. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
What is most notable from Friday’s consumer sentiment data is the plunge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.3% from 4.2%, an enouraging sign for the Fed in its effort to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push a recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase. … READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. … READ MORE >
Inflation relief in the pipeline as food, gas and service prices ease
Top-line U.S. inflation is moving back toward levels where it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Interest rate outlook: Debt ceiling standoff raised the cost of doing business
The Treasury’s need to sell $1.1 trillion in debt along with a strong probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike or two will push interest rates higher, raising the cost of doing business. … READ MORE >
The wealth effect and the Great Resignation
As household balance sheets have ballooned for older workers, many have retired. The implications are only now beginning to be understood. … READ MORE >
Economy added 339,000 jobs in blowout May employment report
The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% as workers rejoined the labor force. … READ MORE >
About that recession: Resilience now, risks ahead
Despite elevated inflation and interest rates, as well as tightening financial conditions and softening demand for loans, the economy has chugged along, thanks in no small part to strong consumer spending. … READ MORE >