Even as some goods showed early signs of tariff-induced inflation, businesses have for the most part managed to absorb the cost of the new trade taxes. … READ MORE >
inventories
Trade deficit remains elevated, clouding first-quarter outlook
The data on goods trade for February suggested that the widening goods trade deficit because of tariffs was not a one-off. … READ MORE >
Industrial production index hits record high amid tariffs
The U.S. industrial production index rose to a record 104.2 on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, according to the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
The risk of an inventory correction is rising
Producers and wholesalers have prepared for higher tariffs by buying goods in advance, which is creating the conditions for a modest inventory correction should demand slow. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing activity slows in May
Softer manufacturing sentiment in May is within our expectations as elevated interest rates continue to weigh on overall goods demand. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows a continuing slowdown
At 1.9 standard deviations below normal, our proprietary index implies a manufacturing sector set to lead the overall economy into a slowdown. … READ MORE >
U.S. inventories are growing at twice the rate of sales
The surge in inventories raises the risk that firms will be caught with excess supplies just as demand begins to slow down this year. … READ MORE >