Job creation in July slowed to 73,000 in July on the back of a large downward revision of 258,000 in May and June, capturing a big chill spreading out over the domestic economy and labor market. In addition, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, but that increase was partially masked … … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Market Minute: U.S. July jobs report preview
We expect a net gain of 150,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% when the U.S. employment report for July is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
The Fed holds rates steady as two board members dissent
The OMC held its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% on Wednesday as it slightly opened the door to a rate cut this fall., … READ MORE >
GDP grew by 3% in second quarter, but underlying data suggests a rate closer to 1%
Once one excludes the more volatile trade and inventory data, growth advanced at a much softer pace of 1.2% implied by final sales to private domestic purchasers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Spending slowing as consumers navigate uncertainty
We expect a 0.3% increase in personal spending in June as consumers increase outlays following the 0.1% decline in May. … READ MORE >
Tariff pause buoys trade data amid warning signs in labor and spending
A sharp narrowing of the goods trade deficit in June will most likely provide a boost to second-quarter gross domestic product, but the headline number masks underlying economic fragility. Labor market activity slowed notably during the month, and signs of weakening consumer demand suggest more turbulence ahead, even as confidence … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Private domestic demand excluding trade and inventories will point the way on GDP
U.S. growth in the second quarter most likely advanced at a 2.5% rate following the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter of the year. … READ MORE >
Inventories in an age of uncertainty
Inventory expansion continued to moderate in May after peaking earlier in the year as firms pulled forward economic activity to avoid tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Japanese bond holdings and global yields
The chance that Japan’s long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party may lose its majority in the upper house of parliament has created a risk of higher bond yields not only in Japan but also globally. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Global yields on the rise
Expansionary fiscal policies in Germany and the U.S., as well as the prospect of greater government spending in Japan, have pushed long-dated yields higher in global fixed-income markets. … READ MORE >