Friday’s strong jobs report, which had a 4.3% unemployment rate and modest nominal wage growth, provided a fast-paced opening movement to that symphony that will be followed by a far more complex inflation report. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Market Minute: Americans still have the travel bug
Despite surging air fares, airline demand remains on a solid trajectory that looks like the strong years of 2024 and 2025. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Expect hiring to edge higher amid soft wage growth
We are forecasting that the jobs report for May will show an increase of 95,000 new positions with risk of a quicker pace. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Sticky service sector inflation
The increase in service sector prices pre-dated the recent supply shock and is part of a broader rise in inflation and interest rates., … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The bond market starts to bite back
In the 13 weeks since the war in Iran began, the yields on 2-year and 5-year Treasury bonds have increased by 64 basis points, closing at 4.0% and 4.14% last Friday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Four imbalances that pose a risk to the economy
Even as financial conditions remain a modest tailwind for the overall economy, there are imbalances that pose a risk to the outlook. … READ MORE >
Market minute: ECB to raise rates in June
Our assessment implies that, given the current global supply shock, the ECB’s monetary policy is too accommodative. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising real yields and the cost of capital
Since March 1, real yields have increased by 38 basis points on the 10-year Treasury, to 2.07%, and by 20 basis points on the 30-year, to 2.74%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation embedded in the fabric of our lives
Repercussions from the supply shock continue to spread, with cross-market implications for both synthetic and organic fibers that will disrupt global apparel supply chains. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Housing recovery will not happen this year
Completions have declined from 1.6 million at an annualized pace in March last year to a 1.37 million pace in March this year. … READ MORE >