We expect the March employment report to show an increase of 60,000 jobs with risk of a modestly stronger print when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the data on Friday. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Market Minute: U.S. financial markets put the world on notice
Our RSM US Financial Conditions Index, which has been decelerating since early February, has turned negative, implying a modest drag on growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Asian economies at risk as oil rationing begins
Rationing will be the baseline method of energy resource allocation across the dynamic Asian economies. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The coming travel slump
As the war in Iran approaches its fifth week, the shock to transportation and travel costs from surging jet fuel prices is coming into view. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The Treasury market is signaling stress
The threat of increased inflation and increased public debt has sent 2-year bond yields above 4.0% this week, while pushing 10-year yields above 4.4%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why gas tax holidays and export bans don’t work
A gas tax holiday and an export ban on U.S. crude are politically appealing, but in the end they only put upward pressure on prices. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Credit default swaps and the Gulf region
As the war in the Middle East escalates, it is time to start considering the downside risks and the potential sources of contagion through the financial channel. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Oil shock, affordability and the American public
Top-line inflation is likely to increase to between 3.5% and 4%, which will carry with it second- and third-order effects even if the conflict ends soon. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as war raises uncertainty
The evolving oil shock has raised uncertainty in the economy, which will result in a period of risk management by the central bank. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again amid global economic disruptions
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate amid domestic economic slack and wider disruptions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East. … READ MORE >