The United States’ gross domestic product grew an estimated 1.5% in January, according to RSM’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity. That bump followed GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. We forecast a 1% GDP growth rate with downside risk for the first quarter of the year, … … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Economics of a global health crisis
Global economic markets’ reaction to China’s coronavirus has been severe, resulting in a significant safe haven move into U.S. government securities by international investors. Whether the virus has a lasting impact on the broader global economy depends largely on the ability of the world’s major governments to effectively deploy resources to contain the outbreak. … READ MORE >
U.S. Q4’19 GDP: slow and steady
The U.S. growth picture arrived spot on with the 2.1% economic consensus driven by solid but slowing personal consumption and strong government spending. The large drop in imports, along with the noticeable easing of spending in the fourth quarter, does denote some caution on the growth picture in light of growing domestic and global risks. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases as general election draws closer
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what seems like an eternity since former Prime Minister Theresa May stepped down and current PM Boris Johnson moved in. … READ MORE >
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. … READ MORE >
ISM Manufacturing Index continues to contract
The October ISM Manufacturing Index continued to contract in October, though it improved to 48.3 from September’s reading of 47.9, implying a modestly slower pace of contraction in domestic manufacturing sentiment. … READ MORE >
October US employment report: solid trend in hiring continues
The October report continues to imply a period of slower hiring ahead, excluding temporary census workers compared to one year ago which is in line with the overall slower pace of economic activity. The bottom line of the October U.S. employment report is that there is sufficient job creation and wage gains to support growth near the long-term trend of 1.8 % and keep the U.S. some distance from a total economic downturn. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remains negative
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index continues to anticipate a slowdown in production, remaining negative in October at -0.59 standard deviations below normal conditions for the manufacturing sector. This is a slight improvement from its September value of -0.79 standard deviations. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases amid progress over Northern Ireland
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved substantially lower after talks between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ireland’s Prime Minister Leo Varadkar were reported to offer options for the transition of Northern Ireland from the common market into Britain’s single market. Though details were still to be worked out, the positive developments allowed negotiations to resume in Brussels over England’s looming departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
Start watching initial jobless claims as economy slows
Signals implying the slow demise of the decade-long economic recovery include the rising number of claims for unemployment insurance benefits. While we do not believe there is imminent risk of an explosion in demand for first-time benefits, once the pace of firings rises above 250,000 it likely marks an important turning point late in the business cycle. … READ MORE >