With the outbreak of Covid-19 in China in late December, a global safe haven move by investors started in earnest around Jan. 14; as a result, negative-yielding debt has jumped back to $13.96 trillion as of Feb. 26, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
As coronavirus spreads, what are the fiscal and monetary policy options?
Investors over the past few days have priced in three 25 basis-point cuts in the federal funds rate by the end of the year, with the first cut implied by the markets coming in June. This is somewhat misguided, given the nature of the global public health emergency that is … … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP grew an estimated 1.5% in January; household consumption expected to be strongest segment in Q1
The United States’ gross domestic product grew an estimated 1.5% in January, according to RSM’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity. That bump followed GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. We forecast a 1% GDP growth rate with downside risk for the first quarter of the year, … … READ MORE >
Economics of a global health crisis
Global economic markets’ reaction to China’s coronavirus has been severe, resulting in a significant safe haven move into U.S. government securities by international investors. Whether the virus has a lasting impact on the broader global economy depends largely on the ability of the world’s major governments to effectively deploy resources to contain the outbreak. … READ MORE >
U.S. Q4’19 GDP: slow and steady
The U.S. growth picture arrived spot on with the 2.1% economic consensus driven by solid but slowing personal consumption and strong government spending. The large drop in imports, along with the noticeable easing of spending in the fourth quarter, does denote some caution on the growth picture in light of growing domestic and global risks. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases as general election draws closer
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what seems like an eternity since former Prime Minister Theresa May stepped down and current PM Boris Johnson moved in. … READ MORE >
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. … READ MORE >
ISM Manufacturing Index continues to contract
The October ISM Manufacturing Index continued to contract in October, though it improved to 48.3 from September’s reading of 47.9, implying a modestly slower pace of contraction in domestic manufacturing sentiment. … READ MORE >
October US employment report: solid trend in hiring continues
The October report continues to imply a period of slower hiring ahead, excluding temporary census workers compared to one year ago which is in line with the overall slower pace of economic activity. The bottom line of the October U.S. employment report is that there is sufficient job creation and wage gains to support growth near the long-term trend of 1.8 % and keep the U.S. some distance from a total economic downturn. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remains negative
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index continues to anticipate a slowdown in production, remaining negative in October at -0.59 standard deviations below normal conditions for the manufacturing sector. This is a slight improvement from its September value of -0.79 standard deviations. … READ MORE >