Completions have declined from 1.6 million at an annualized pace in March last year to a 1.37 million pace in March this year. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Market Minute: The end of bond-market complacency
After shrugging off the breakout of war in the Middle East, the front end of the U.S. bond market is now pricing in the risk of higher inflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Sticky prices and Fed credibility
The key question is whether top-line inflation bleeds into the core inflation rate, which exclude food and energy sectors but includes service sector pricing … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Diesel, trucking, food prices and inflation
Businesses and households should anticipate a sustained increase in food costs as higher fuel and transportation prices are passed along. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A new inflation regime awaits Warsh
Five-year breakevens since Feb. 27 have increased from 2.445% to 2.72%, the 10-year from 2.25% to 2.5% and the 30-year from 2.19% to 2.3%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising long-term yields in major economies
Three of the largest bond issuers—Italy, the UK and the U.S.—have experienced the largest increases in yields since the Iran war began. … READ MORE >
Stagflation lite sets in as inflation surges in April
The consumer piece index rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in April, driven by the war in Iran and the supply shock that it triggered. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Drawing down oil reserves
In the first two months of the conflict, almost 100 million barrels of inventory were burned through. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation swaps are underpricing risk of rising CPI
We expect April’s top-line CPI to increase by 0.7% on the month and by 3.7% from one year ago. … READ MORE >
In April jobs report, a solid, steady and stable labor market
The economy added 115,000 jobs in April while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. … READ MORE >