The RSM Brexit Stress Index rose in a week that included the European Union’s rejection of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal proposal and the equity market’s recognition of the adverse effects of disruptions to trade. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Brexit stress gets reprieve due to Supreme Court ruling
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased slightly during the week, as Britain’s Supreme Court ordered the resumption of Parliament and restored some sort of order to the Brexit chaos.
The composite index, which measures financial-market stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed the week at 1.20 standard deviations above normal levels of stress, down from last week’s close at 1.27. While stress remains high, it has retreated from the extreme levels of earlier this month when a constitutional crisis and a clumsy exit appeared inevitable. … READ MORE >
Economic growth is running out of steam, RSM data shows
So far the domestic economy has absorbed two policy-induced shocks—a trade war with China and the slowing of immigration—and one exogenous oil supply shock that are all contributing to the story of slower growth. Once the economy slows to near 1% next year, recession risks will become elevated. … READ MORE >
Brexit stress rises amid Bank of England’s caution
The RSM Brexit Stress Index rose slightly during a week that included conciliatory tones regarding proposals for a Northern Ireland economic zone, the High Court’s hearings over the suspension of Parliament and the Bank of England warning that continuing anxiety over Brexit and global trade disputes are taking their toll on the economy. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: ‘Catch-22’ in a monetary context
Demands by market actors for accommodative policy linked to a diminished global and domestic economic outlook resulted in a reduction in the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range between 1.75% and 2%. In our estimation, this is likely not the final rate cut of 2019 by a central bank clearly concerned with the direction of trade policy, a modest exogenous supply shock in oil markets and political pressure from the executive branch to reduce rates. … READ MORE >
Modest supply shock to global oil to boost US retail gas prices
The attack on the Saudi oil production facility at Abqaiq over the weekend will temporarily remove roughly 5.7 million barrels of oil production per day, or about 5% of total global supply, and is set to send U.S. retail gas prices 15% higher. As long as the geopolitical situation on the ground does not change, we will not expect the supply shock to spur a recession at this time. … READ MORE >
Fed preview: Difficulty and divided FOMC
Monetary policy is difficult under the best of circumstances. The cross currents of the trade war, a modest exogenous supply shock in oil markets, political pressure from the executive branch to reduce interest rates are among the factors that make the upcoming FOMC meeting one of the more challenging policy decisions in some time. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Reacting to a Parliamentary dose of recession prevention
The RSM Brexit Stress Index surged sharply during the week amid attempts by Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party prime minister, to curtail objections to a no-deal Brexit but eased at week’s end as Parliament regained control of government. … READ MORE >
August hiring slows: Jobs report shows unflattering shape of things to come
August hiring slowed to 130,000 jobs, reflecting late-cycle business dynamics and the impact of the trade war that is now spilling over into the real economy. After adjusting for Census Bureau hiring the top-line hiring increase was only 105,000 jobs, just above the 100,000 necessary to stabilize the unemployment rate … READ MORE >
US August employment preview: focus on goods producing and manufacturing jobs
Investor attention will be squarely focused on the pace of hiring in goods production and manufacturing in the August U.S. employment report released on Friday. The results will follow a decline in the August ISM manufacturing employment sub-index to 47.4, which implies contraction in hiring across those sectors. … READ MORE >