The dollar remains the currency of choice for emerging markets. The dollar’s percentage share of emerging market bonds stands at 86.3% and is 81.7% of all credit. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market minute: U.S. runs a trade surplus with Canada excluding oil
The oil trade between the two countries is a function of geographical proximity, efficiency, cost and infrastructure concerns. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Will the economy keep on truckin’? An indicator is saying no.
The Dow Jones U.S. Trucking Index has declined 24% from its peak on Nov. 11 and is down 21.5% since its recent high on Feb. 18. … READ MORE >
The waiting is the hardest part: Fed can’t do anything about tariffs
We expect the Fed to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% while adjusting its Summary of Economic Projections to anticipate slower growth at or near 2%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Drill, baby, drill and the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum
The spot price of 5.5-inch diameter North American steel pipe, used by drillers to extract oil, has soared more than 20% over the past month. … READ MORE >
Quantum of solace: Inflation cools ahead of tariff-induced price increases
Service inflation and rents, though, are still advancing a well above 4%, which in conjunction with slowing growth does not bode well for the economy … READ MORE >
Market minute: Risk of stagnation, stagflation and slower growth
Despite the trading community pricing in three rate cuts this year, employment, wage and inflation data imply a Fed that may be reluctant to reduce rates into an economy that is slowing amid sticky inflation. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Concern over government shutdown showing up in money markets
The one-month T-bill rate of 4.29% is now below the 4.30% three-month rate and about to breach the Federal Reserve’s repo-facility award rate of 4.25%. … READ MORE >
The risk of an inventory correction is rising
Producers and wholesalers have prepared for higher tariffs by buying goods in advance, which is creating the conditions for a modest inventory correction should demand slow. … READ MORE >
Solid labor demand persists as U.S. economy adds 151,000 jobs in February
The American economy added 151,000 jobs in February, a sign that demand for labor remains solid amid the significant policy changes in Washington. … READ MORE >