Cutting the policy rate into conditions best described as stagflation would only intensify that movement, driving capital flows into euros, yen and francs while driving interest rates higher. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market Minute: Term premium rising as Fed independence at risk
Trade shock has turned into financial shock in the form of a rising term premium as investors unwind risk and diversify away from dollar-denominated assets. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Real income expectations plummet
March retail sales will see a pop of greater than 1% when the Census Bureau releases the data on Thursday as households pull forward consumption in advance of higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Housing units under construction easing
Cost curves associated with housing construction are rising, margins are thinning and it would logically follow that construction unemployment will increase later this year. … READ MORE >
Requiem for the dollar?
The United States’ attempt to rebalance the global economy to better serve its interests has resulted in the flight of capital out of the country, harming American businesses and consumers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Dollar tumbles as investors exit U.S. assets
A loss of credibility and confidence in the policy to disrupt patterns of trade has spread from domestic financial investors to global fiscal and monetary authorities. … READ MORE >
March inflation moderated in the last clean report before tariffs
Investors and policymakers should anticipate top-line and core inflation to advance at a 4% to 4.5% pace by the middle of the summer. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Tariffs and the damage done
Even after a surge in equity markets on April 9, American financial conditions stand at 1.1 standard deviations below neutral, indicating a drag on overall growth. … READ MORE >
Simultaneous shocks to tip economy into recession in current quarter
We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Yields spike as financial conditions tighten and investors seek cash
The 10-year Treasury yield surged on Tuesday to close at 4.29% in a sign of the pressure building across the fixed income complex as investors seek cash. … READ MORE >