A look at U.S. wage growth ahead of the November U.S. jobs report to be released today should translate to a gain of 3.9% on a year-ago basis. We expect a net change in total employment of 220,000 positions, a 4.1% unemployment rate and a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. Solid job growth in ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Initial jobless claims climb amid holiday volatility
First-time claims for unemployment benefits increased by 9,000 to 224,000 last week, in line with the 13-week moving average of 226,000 and a sign of a labor market where workers have a remarkable level of job security. With arrival of the holiday season, though, top-line claims will show volatility in ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The mystery of rising long-term unemployment
The American labor market by any definition remains strong and, in our estimation, stands at full employment. The numbers tell a story of resilience The unemployment rate has ranged between 3.4% and 4.3% over the past two years. The median duration of unemployment stands at 10 weeks, with initial ... READ MORE >
ISM service sector survey: Solid expansion continues
The U.S. service sector in November showed an expansion for the 51st month in the 54 months since the recovery from the pandemic began, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s services purchasing managers index released on Wednesday. With the labor market at full employment and wages growing ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is trading near 4.20%, which was the RSM year-end target, and has averaged 4.18% for the year through Dec. 3. And the yields are set to go higher. An economy with growth that could approach 3% with full employment, coupled with expectations of expansionary fiscal ... READ MORE >
Servicing external debt in a strong-dollar environment
Strong U.S. economic growth, the advent of industrial policy and the arrival of expansionary fiscal policy next year have all caused the greenback to soar in value recently, with more increases on the way. But the dollar’s strength is coming at price for emerging markets, which must pay more to service ... READ MORE >
Global currency reserves: BRIC economies not supplanting U.S. any time soon
The notion of the BRIC economies—Brazil, Russia, India and China—putting together an alternative to the U.S. dollar is neither new nor has it been effective. The idea was floated over the weekend in a threat by President-elect Donald Trump to place 100% tariffs on the BRIC economies if they move to ... READ MORE >
Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
A robust 0.4% increase in personal spending and a 0.6% increase in personal income in October underscore just how strong the economy and households have been ahead of the critical holiday spending season. But at the same time, the strong spending and income data, released on Wednesday by the Commerce ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain stable at 213,000
First-time jobless claims remained remarkably stable at 213,000 as continuing claims increased to 1.9 million for the week ending Nov. 23. Our preferred metric of first-time claims, the 13-week moving average, declined to 226,200 as the distortions of the two recent hurricanes eased, according to the ... READ MORE >
Trump tariff losers index: Manufacturing, metals, petroleum and many more
The declaration by President-elect Trump that he intends to place a 10% tariff on all imports from China and a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico is another sign that firms, investors and policymakers should prepare for more supply chain stress. In particular, automakers and their ... READ MORE >