We expect the Fed to hold its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.5% at its meeting next week and would advise the Fed to begin shaping expectations about a likely cyclical peak at that range. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Potential impact of UAW strike would not be sufficient to cause recession
Our back-of-the-envelope estimate indicates that the economy would suffer a modest 0.1% drag during the current quarter should the action last for a month. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions and the cost of doing business: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley on Monday, Sept. 25, at 1 p.m. eastern for a wide-ranging conversation on America’s real economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: Labor market continues to cool
In August, the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs and the unemployment rate settled in at 3.8%, according to Labor Department data released on Friday. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Signs of a bottom
Only two of the five manufacturing centers surveyed by regional Federal Reserve banks, New York and Dallas, reported substantial declines Philadelphia and Kansas City reported substantial increases, while Richmond had a slight increase. … READ MORE >
Rates outlook: As economy enters glide path, bond market hedges its bets
Even as the economy shows positive trends like slowing inflation and a healthy labor market, the bond market is showing anxiety. … READ MORE >
U.S. July jobs report: Gradual and orderly cooling in the labor market
The 187,000 net change in total employment and a 3.5% unemployment rate in July show cooling demand by firms as the economy grows near its 1.8% long-term trend. … READ MORE >
Fed survey of loan officers shows rising impact of higher interest rates
The Federal Reserve’s latest survey of bank lending officers confirms that the dampening effect of monetary-policy tightening on borrowing and lending continued in the second quarter. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: A continued decline in July
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index slipped back to 1.8 standard deviations below normal, the 15th consecutive month of negative values. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index moving toward neutral
With the money market at normal levels of risk, and with surging equities balancing out the caution displayed in the bond market, our composite financial conditions market is fast approaching neutral. … READ MORE >