Production and sales of heavy trucks are slowing ahead of the shocks linked to tariffs and what will be further declines in demand by households and commercial ventures, data shows. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market Minute: Unemployment expectations, job creation and the trade shock
The percentage of consumers who expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months soared to 65% in April, according to the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment. … READ MORE >
Introducing the RSM US Recession Monitor
After significant disruption to trade policy and financial markets this year, we now forecast a 55% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Private sector deleveraging risk amid trade conflict
One should not discount the possibility of further financial volatility because of the leverage of non-financial bank intermediaries. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Currency politics, capital flows and U.S.-Japanese relations
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato are set to start a dialogue on currency rates when they meet this week in Washington. Their meeting should capture in vivid fashion the lack of clarity in U.S. trade policy at a time when Japanese decision makers are … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Reservation wages decline as worker discontent grows
The reservation wage, or the lowest wage rate at which a worker will accept a particular job offer, has declined this year to $74,135 from $82,236 last year, according to the New York Fed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A word about central bank independence
Cutting the policy rate into conditions best described as stagflation would only intensify that movement, driving capital flows into euros, yen and francs while driving interest rates higher. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Term premium rising as Fed independence at risk
Trade shock has turned into financial shock in the form of a rising term premium as investors unwind risk and diversify away from dollar-denominated assets. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Real income expectations plummet
March retail sales will see a pop of greater than 1% when the Census Bureau releases the data on Thursday as households pull forward consumption in advance of higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Housing units under construction easing
Cost curves associated with housing construction are rising, margins are thinning and it would logically follow that construction unemployment will increase later this year. … READ MORE >