Financial conditions in the U.K. have settled into a groove that would be rivaled only by the late Charlie Watts. As a result of this stability, the RSM UK Financial Conditions Index in August moved to its highest level since 2014, reaching 1.1 standard deviations above levels of risk that are ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: The global threat of a resurgent virus
Canada’s financial markets continued their cautious optimism in August despite the unexpected 1.1% decline in second-quarter gross domestic product because of declining demand in exports, supply chain constraints and residential investment. That economic surprise may slow those at the Bank of Canada ... READ MORE >
August jobs report preview: Expect a hint of delta drag on hiring
We expect an increase in total employment of 600,000 in August with the chance of a stronger number linked to seasonal hiring in education when the jobs report is released on Friday. That seasonal hiring will add roughly 225,000 jobs to the top-line number, while the unemployment rate will decline ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Fourth wave of infections to carry economic impact
At some point, the resurgence of the coronavirus will set the American and global economies back. In the United States, infections have increased to a rate of 157,000 per day, with each loss of life and the use of medical resources and foregone activity taking their toll on economic progress. The ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Still expansionary, but slipping from its peak
This has been a durables-led recovery, with employment in the manufacturing sector back to 97% of its pre-pandemic levels. But after a year of rapid growth, there are signs that the buoyancy among manufacturers is ebbing. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, while still elevated, declined in ... READ MORE >
Amid Ida’s devastating human toll, the national economic damage is likely to be limited
Even as Hurricane Ida leaves a trail of disrupted lives, destroyed homes and shattered communities in its wake, the Category 4 storm will in the end most likely have a modest impact on overall U.S. economic activity. In our estimation, the disruption to economic activity, including higher energy ... READ MORE >
Child tax credit: Potential game changer for American families
One aspect of the American Rescue Plan signed into law in March included an extension of the child tax credit first enacted in 1997 that would send direct aid to families. Those aid checks, for families with children making up to $150,000 or $112,500 for a single parent who is a head of household. ... READ MORE >
Income and spending remained strong in July, though a spending slowdown looms
American personal income increased robustly in July, likely because of the expanded child tax credit that we think will bolster overall spending by roughly $35 billion this year. Once government transfers are accounted for, personal income rose a more modest and sustainable 0.2% on the month, ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Why the Fed is likely to talk about the unemployment gap at Jackson Hole
Underscoring the Federal Reserve’s shift in policy to flexible average inflation targeting is the idea that the best way to address inequality is through a lower unemployment rate. While the Fed’s traditional emphasis on inflation and monetary policy is not passé, the idea that the central banks should ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: More noise than signal
First-time jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 21 increased to 353,000 from 349,000 the previous week, which is below the 13-week moving average of 385,200. Investors should anticipate more noise than signal from this data over the next three weeks because of holiday-induced distortions. Just as ... READ MORE >