Over the past few weeks, we have observed a steady but uneven decline in first-time jobless claims on the way back to what we expect will be a range of 200,000 to 230,000, last seen before the pandemic. To push that process along, 26 states, citing demand for workers, have ended extra unemployment ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
CHART OF THE DAY: May was another good month for the labor market
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released by the Labor Department on Wednesday strongly suggests that American workers are enjoying a moment when work is plentiful and firms appear willing to meet demand for higher wages. Through May, there is roughly one unemployed person per job opening as ... READ MORE >
Economic update: GDP to grow above 7% this year as expansion takes hold
The American economy will continue to boom in the second half of the year following what we expect will be 7.8% growth through the first six months. While growth will almost certainly peak in the second quarter at our revised 9.2% forecast, rising wages among workers down the income ladder will ... READ MORE >
June jobs report: Let the good times roll
The U.S. economy generated a robust 850,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate advanced to 5.9% amid an increase of 151,602 workers in the labor force, according to government data released Friday. This combination of job generation and workers returning is a good thing and illustrates that the ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims resume their downward trend, falling to 364,000
Initial jobless claims declined to 364,000 for the week ending June 26, resuming their downward trend following a few weeks of flat to down readings. The weekly number is the lowest posting of the pandemic and indicative of what we expect to be a downward march toward pre-pandemic levels in first-time ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: Accommodation to continue while economy shows signs of revitalization
At its June policy meeting, the Bank of Canada reiterated its intention to maintain an accommodative monetary policy as uncertainty over the pace of the pandemic abates and the economy recovers. As it has for the past 16 months, the bank is keeping its policy rate at near-zero to maintain liquidity ... READ MORE >
May personal income and spending: Weak top line, but data looks better beyond the noise
The financial condition of American households is improving as the economy moves toward a full reopening and job opportunities expand. Although personal income declined by 2% in May and personal spending was flat, according to government data released Friday, one has to look beyond the noise associated ... READ MORE >
$1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure agreement reflects critical need for modernization
We have made the case for some time that nation’s aging infrastructure is in critical need of modernization. Now, that process has taken another step forward. The $1.2 trillion agreement announced on Thursday, while it still faces hurdles, would increase long-run productivity in the economy, lift ... READ MORE >
Data deluge: Jobless claims ease to 411,000 as durable goods orders rise 1.1%
First-time jobless claims eased to 411,000 for the week ending June 19, a slight decline from the revised figure of 418,000 for the previous week, according to government data released Thursday. The decline is indicative of what will be a long road to normalization in the pace of firings that ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Growth and inflation and tapering, oh my!
The Federal Open Market Committee will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting this week, but that decision will mask an underlying shift in its economic projections and policies. Consider three areas where this shift is occurring: The dot plot, which shows committee members’ projections for ... READ MORE >