Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
U.S. inflation is most likely approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. … READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Strong growth as labor market remains tight
Total employment increased by 261,000 jobs in October, which brought the total gain in employment this year to 4 million positions. … READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Continued signs of a slowdown
Our composite measure of manufacturing activity shows that the decline has reached more than 1.6 standard deviations below normal. … READ MORE >
Risk in UK financial markets eases ahead of new government
U.K. financial markets continue to price in higher levels of risk into the value of holding securities but appear on the verge of turning the corner, RSM’s proprietary data shows. … READ MORE >
As turmoil grows, foreign banks and investors flock to the dollar
Whether it is the purchase of short-term Treasury notes, deposits in U.S. financial institutions or a use of the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase facility, investors are in a flight to safety … READ MORE >