This week’s FOMC meeting is not likely to include any meaningful announcement on tapering its monthly asset purchases and only a modest change in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot interest rate forecast. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index remains solid as election approaches.
Our index is showing that the level of risk priced into financial assets has been consistently lower than normal. … READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Inflation eased in August, but it’s too soon to declare victory
Score a victory for team transitory in the inflation wars. The Consumer Price Index eased in August, reaffirming our view that inflation likely formed a peak in the summer following the historic supply shock that defined pandemic economics starting last year. … READ MORE >
Global supply chain disruptions accelerate, presenting a challenge to the middle market
Fragile global supply chains are facing another round of port closures, factory shutdowns, production halts and labor shortages as the delta variant spreads. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: How the enhanced child tax credit expands outlays on food, shelter and books
The data shows that the policy is providing an increase in spending among those with the highest marginal propensity to consume—the very people who are intended to benefit from the child tax credit. And that spending has a multiplier effect, leading to a boost in overall economic activity. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to 310,000, but expect volatility in the coming weeks
First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined to 310,000 for the week ending Sept. 4, down from 345,000 the week before and well below the 13-week moving average of 377,000. Continuing claims increased to 2.783 million for the week ending Aug. 28. … READ MORE >
Budget brinkmanship as another debt-ceiling debacle looms
Once Congress returns from its summer recess, it will need to take up the funding of the government past Sept. 30, when the financing of its debt runs out at the end of the fiscal year. Lawmakers need to learn from the past that such debt ceiling showdowns extract a price from the economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. August employment report: Delta variant exerts a drag on hiring
Hiring slowed to 235,000 in August, down from a revised gain of 1.053 million jobs in July, as the unemployment rate declined to 5.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims: After the deluge
First-time jobless claims decreased to 340,000 for the week ending Aug. 28, from an upwardly revised 354,000 the week before, while continuing claims fell to 2.75 million, according to government data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Gimme shelter
The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index has moved to its highest level since 2014, reaching 1.1 standard deviations above levels of risk that are normally priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >