Financial markets around the world are reacting to the rising risk of inflation and the prospect of policy responses by central banks, all of which have led to a modest easing in our RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index. The Bank of Canada has already halted its bond purchase plan, the Reserve ... READ MORE >
pandemic
Enhanced child tax credit was a game-changer for families, and the economy
Even as the economy slowed in the third quarter as the delta variant took hold, that slowdown would have been far worse if not for the enhanced child tax credit that was introduced on July 15. By our estimate, the enhanced child tax credit, which provided direct payments to about 35 ... READ MORE >
The pandemic and the vanishing American worker
This is the fourth article in a series examining the transformation of the American workforce during the pandemic. Part I looked at what is driving this change, Part II looked at the rise of $15 an hour as the de facto minimum wage in the private sector and Part III discussed the surge in new business ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Holding steady
Financial conditions in the UK remain accommodative, signaling confidence that the policies of the monetary and fiscal authorities have created the framework for a sustained economic recovery. Ahead of the Bank of England’s critical decisions on policy normalization on Thursday, this should provide ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report preview: Expect a gain of 475,000 in October
When the October U.S. employment report is released on Friday, a central area of focus will be on the potential return of women in their prime working years to the labor force as the delta variant fades, child care becomes more available, schools reopen and hiring accelerates. We expect that the ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing in Canada at seven-month high
Canada’s manufacturing output hit a seven-month high in October as domestic and international demand remained strong despite persistent bottlenecks in the global supply chains. The IHS Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 57.7 on the month, up from 57.0 in September, marking ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Expansion hits headwinds
The recovery of the manufacturing sector in the United States remained intact in October, with expectations for the expansion to continue over the next six months. Surveys of manufacturing activity conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks reported increases in new orders despite backlogs, longer ... READ MORE >
Workers chart a different course as new business formations surge
This is the third article in a series examining the transformation of the American workforce during the pandemic. Part I looked at what is driving this change and Part II looked at the rise of $15 an hour as the de facto minimum wage in the private sector. One area of a dynamically changing domestic ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Wages grew fastest in 20 years
The tight labor market sent worker compensation growth in the third quarter to its highest level in 20 years, posting a 1.3% gain, according to Employment Cost Index data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. The Employment Cost Index is the Federal Reserve's top wage gauge, and is ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Tapering explained
Next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will focus on the Federal Reserve’s exit from its pandemic-era asset purchase program that has sent its balance sheet above $8.5 trillion. We expect that the Fed will announce plans to reduce its monthly monetary accommodation of $140 billion ... READ MORE >