As the Bank of Canada tries to tame inflation and simultaneously guide the economy to a soft landing, most market participants are skeptical that it can pull off the feat. After months of steep interest rate increases, the higher borrowing costs are only beginning to be felt in Canada's real ... READ MORE >
recession
Business spending on equipment falls more than expected
Orders and shipments of core capital goods that exclude defense and aircraft spending, a key measure of private business investment, both fell by 0.4% in March, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. It is now clear that the nonresidential component of private investment has caught up ... READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
Growth during the first quarter most likely expanded at a 2.35% pace based on our RSM economic forecast in contrast with the 2% consensus. This growth, though, is not likely to last. Given the emerging consensus among economists that the economy will fall into a recession this year, a ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing posts first decline in nearly 3 years
Industry and government data on Wednesday continued to paint a mixed picture of the economy as the end of the business cycle is approaching. The manufacturing sector showed its first monthly contraction following 30 straight months of growth, highlighting the impact of restrictive monetary conditions that ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector nears contraction
The manufacturing sector grew for the 30th month in a row but barely hovered above contraction in November, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday. The ISM’s overall index slowed to 49%, barely above the contraction threshold at 48.7%. It was the third straight ... READ MORE >
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. The strong month, which followed a flat month in September, suggested that, at least for now, a recession was not at hand. Sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.3% with broad-based increases. Nine of ... READ MORE >
U.S. Q3 GDP: 2.6% growth overstates economic activity as probable recession looms
“Sound and fury signifying nothing” is an apt description of the 2.6% (1.8% year-over-year) seasonally adjusted annualized rate of growth in the third quarter of 2022. Excluding trade and inventories, real final sales to domestic private purchasers increased at an anemic 0.1%, according to government data ... READ MORE >
Q2 US GDP: Economy contracts for second consecutive quarter
The American economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter April through June, at a pace of 0.9% due to weak inventory accumulation and an outsize decline in gross private investment, according to data released Thursday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, the fact that the economy grew ... READ MORE >
Recession debate: What does the forward market say about the business cycle?
During the Federal Open Market Committee press conference this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he did not believe the economy is in recession, noting that the broader economy continued to grow and employment remains solid. Alongside Powell’s comments, the forward market is another source ... READ MORE >
Recovery monitor: Economy set to expand as income and spending close pandemic deficits
The pandemic-induced recession, which was characterized by its speed and severity, is rapidly becoming a memory as the economy shows remarkable signs of regaining its footing. Spending has reached its pre-pandemic level and we anticipate that June will mark the turning point at which the economy moves ... READ MORE >