Job openings fell to 9.6 million in March from almost 10 million in February, a clear sign that the labor market is softening as the economy slows down. … READ MORE >
recession
Canadian recession tracker: Preparing for landing
A recession, albeit mild and brief, is most likely on the horizon. Our forecast puts the chance of a recession at 60% by the middle of the year, with the downturn hitting the economy unevenly. … READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment falls more than expected
Orders and shipments of core capital goods that exclude defense and aircraft spending, a key measure of private business investment, both fell by 0.4% in March. … READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are starting to pull down growth just as a period of tighter lending will probably cool the economy further over the next few months. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing posts first decline in nearly 3 years
Industry and government data on Wednesday continued to paint a mixed picture of the economy as the end of the business cycle is approaching. The manufacturing sector showed its first monthly contraction following 30 straight months of growth, highlighting the impact of restrictive monetary conditions the Federal Reserve continued to impose on the sector to fight inflation. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector nears contraction
The ISM’s manufacturing index slowed to 49%, barely above the contraction threshold at 48.7%. It was the third straight decline as demand for manufactured goods stalled. … READ MORE >
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. … READ MORE >
U.S. Q3 GDP: 2.6% growth overstates economic activity as probable recession looms
“Sound and fury signifying nothing” is an apt description of the 2.6% (1.8% year-over-year) seasonally adjusted annualized rate of growth in the third quarter of 2022. Excluding trade and inventories, real final sales to domestic private purchasers increased at an anemic 0.1%, which underscores our estimate of an elevated 65% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Q2 US GDP: Economy contracts for second consecutive quarter
From our point of view, the economy will likely soon meet the formal definition of being in a recession, though it isn’t there yet. … READ MORE >
Recession debate: What does the forward market say about the business cycle?
The forward market implies that the conventional recession definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth is not yet consistent with an actual recession. … READ MORE >