We’re raising our full-year forecast toward 7% growth for fiscal 2026-27, above the RBI’s own revised 6.7% projection. … READ MORE >
Reserve Bank of India
India’s inflation accelerates, but for how long?
Inflation in India accelerated in June, rising by 4.4% on an annual basis and exceeding the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% medium-term target for the first time in 17 months. … READ MORE >
India’s industrial output jumps to a two-year high in June
The upside surprise, though, is unlikely to move the Reserve Bank of India off its expected hold at its policy meeting next week. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shock comes home to India
Two months into the U.S.-Iran war, India is experiencing a classic external supply shock that is depressing growth and elevating inflation. India enters FY27 with exceptional structural economic advantages: 7.6% growth in its economy, reduced U.S. tariffs, a strong services export base of $418 billion, and healthy foreign exchange reserves … … READ MORE >
Reserve Bank of India set to hold rates steady
While the Indian economy entered the year with significant momentum, the shock resulting from the war in Iran has effectively closed the window for further monetary policy accommodation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Global central bank outlook
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Global central bank outlook: Divergent paths on rates
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: India’s rising capital buffer and the end of its currency peg
As India has gained prominence in the global economy, its central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, has wisely increased the level of foreign exchange holdings. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The end of the Indian rupee’s effective dollar peg
With the rupee trading at or near all-time lows and the Reserve Bank of India’s real effective exchange rate at all-time lows, the 2022-2024 de-facto exchange rate peg maintained by the RBI has ended. … READ MORE >
Global financial market evolution, the carry trade and India’s economic ascent
Investors looking for solid fixed income returns are the rupee, as the source of a lucrative carry trade across the $7.5 trillion daily churn in global capital markets. … READ MORE >