The Trump administration’s announcement on Friday that it would impose steep tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico presents a fundamental contradiction in policy that financial markets cannot ignore forever. Tariffs cannot be both a negotiating tactic and an offset that raises revenues to ... READ MORE >
tariffs
Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate to 3% amid price stability, trade policy uncertainty
The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate to three per cent on Wednesday, but trade policy uncertainty looms over Canada’s economic outlook and clouds the future rate path. The 25 basis point cut was widely anticipated as both inflation and inflation expectations moderated while interest rates ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The contradictions at the heart of U.S. economic policy
Abraham Lincoln once said that a house divided against itself cannot stand. That was true in 1858 and it’s true today when it comes to economic policy. The Trump administration’s strategic economic objective is to rebalance the global economy. That is, the Trump administration intends to reverse the ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Modeling the impact of tariffs
As firms and households await the expected increase in import taxes through a flurry of executive orders over the next several days, it is important to note just how challenging it will be to estimate their impact on growth, employment and inflation. Modeling such a shock to the economy depends upon ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: How tariffs fall harder on lower-income households
Economic inequality in the United States has been a fact of life for decades. And the tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump is proposing will fall squarely on the shoulders of U.S. households, particularly those with lower incomes. Read RSM's global economic outlook in the latest issue of The ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Emerging market currencies at risk of depreciation
Since early October, emerging market currencies have been depreciating against the U.S. dollar. Differentials in growth, interest rates and expectations on policy changes by the Trump administration are all contributing to the decline. Whether the depreciation is taking place in economies that have ... READ MORE >
Tariffs would fray Canada-U.S. ties in energy and auto manufacturing
A blanket tariff by the U.S. on Canadian imports is unlikely to materialize early next year despite rhetoric from U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. Still, the mere prospect of new tariffs has caused considerable anxiety in Canada. Such a move would have dire economic implications on both ... READ MORE >
Tariff discussions in health care and life sciences industries stoke global supply chain concerns
The health care and life sciences industries could be facing significant changes under a second Trump administration. From the prospect of new tariffs to the likelihood that the BIOSECURE Act will be enacted, companies are scrambling to adjust to what could be a changed operating ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Firms to pull forward durable goods orders to avoid tariffs
Inside the University of Michigan’s survey on consumer sentiment for November, buying conditions for durable goods increased by more than 20%. Firms appear to be acting rationally to avoid rising import taxes in the new year. These purchases will bolster gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, ... READ MORE >
Trump tariff losers index: Manufacturing, metals, petroleum and many more
The declaration by President-elect Trump that he intends to place a 10% tariff on all imports from China and a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico is another sign that firms, investors and policymakers should prepare for more supply chain stress. In particular, automakers and their ... READ MORE >