The Trump administration’s policies will cause the trade and current account deficits to widen, not narrow. … READ MORE >
tariffs
Morning market minute: Modeling the impact of tariffs
A simple exercise that assumes tariffs of 25% across the board and 60% on Chinese goods implies that the U.S. economy over the next decade would be approximately 2% smaller than it otherwise would be. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: How tariffs fall harder on lower-income households
Tariffs, or import taxes, are inherently regressive, as lower-income households spend a greater proportion of their earnings on day-to-day expenses. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Emerging market currencies at risk of depreciation
Economies with inadequate capital buffers, economic imbalances featuring large import volumes or those with weak financial systems will be at risk to larger-than-anticipated currency depreciations. … READ MORE >
Tariffs would fray Canada-U.S. ties in energy and auto manufacturing
Although a blanket tariff by the U.S. on all Canadian imports is unlikely to materialize in the first half of 2025, there is still cause for concern as selective U.S. tariffs are possible and would be disruptive to both countries’ economies. To illustrate this, look at energy and auto manufacturing — Canada’s industries with the highest exports to the U.S. … READ MORE >
Tariff discussions in health care and life sciences industries stoke global supply chain concerns
The health care and life sciences industries could be facing significant changes under a second Trump administration. From the prospect of new tariffs to the likelihood that the BIOSECURE Act will be enacted, companies are scrambling to adjust to what could be a changed operating environment. Already, the prospect of … … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Firms to pull forward durable goods orders to avoid tariffs
Firms appear to be acting rationally to avoid rising import taxes in the new year. … READ MORE >
Trump tariff losers index: Manufacturing, metals, petroleum and many more
The Trump Tariff Losers Index captured the supply chain stress during the pandemic era and is poised to turn upward should the threats of new tariffs become policy action. … READ MORE >
China’s economic challenge: Elevated external debt and its dirty float
A Chinese economy caught in a debt and deleveraging trap is likely to face the additional strain of a sharp increase in tariffs on goods sold into the U.S. … READ MORE >
Higher tariffs are likely coming; consumer businesses should prepare
As consumer products companies look to a new Trump administration, higher tariffs are most likely on the way. Businesses that prepare now, even as they wait for the tariffs to take shape, will be better positioned to maximize their margins. … READ MORE >