We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
tariffs
Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March as more pain looms due to U.S. tariffs
Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March as U.S. tariffs came into effect. Expect more layoffs in the coming months as tariffs cause widespread economic pains. … READ MORE >
More noise than signal: U.S. adds 228,000 jobs in March
For now, the entry of people into the workforce and wage gains will provide a cushion for the economy as it adjusts to the new realities of higher taxes on imported goods. … READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of March 31, 2025
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here’s the latest. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: First the tariff supply shock, then the inflation
With the recent round of reciprocal tariffs, the United States is heading toward another supply shock, which will spur the worst kind of inflation. … READ MORE >
Canada spared from worst of new U.S. tariffs—but economic challenges remain
The absence of new tariffs is a small consolation prize for Canada as the U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs on most countries, but economic challenges remain. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. effective tariff rate hits 23%, creating conditions for downturn
The effective tariff rate in the United States now stands at 23% following Wednesday’s announcements of new tariffs, with the trade-weighted average mean currently resting at 18%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Ending the American put on the global economy
As the reality of what may be up to a 20% increase in taxes on imports sets in, global production and consumption will fall back as will imports into the U.S. … READ MORE >
Trade war turning FX traders bearish on the dollar
Currency trader positioning is turning bearish on the dollar and becoming more bullish on the currencies of major U.S. trading partners as the U.S. prepares to launch a multinational trade war. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions turn negative amid risks of trade war
Given the ever-widening scope of U.S. tariffs, with the next round set to take effect on April 2, the risks to the economic outlook through the financial channel are elevated and rising. … READ MORE >