Housing starts and building permits in the United States fell in October for the second straight month largely because of the two hurricanes in the South and the recent rebound in mortgage rates. Housing starts, a key indicator of residential real estate performance within gross domestic product, ... READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
U.S. retail sales decelerated in October
Retail sales growth was softer in October, following a stronger-than-expected September report, which had sharp upward revisions, the Census Bureau reported on Friday. The mixed results should not change the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate in December. That probability has ... READ MORE >
Falling jobless claims and firmer inflation point to slower rate cuts
The impact of two major hurricanes and labor strikes in the past two months on initial jobless claim data has completely faded, as the metric fell to 217,000 last week, lower than the pre-pandemic average. The continued drop in new filings for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, should suggest ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment in November rises to highest level since April
U.S. consumer sentiment rose to the highest level since April as gasoline prices continued to fall and inflation concerns eased. According to the University of Michigan's survey in November, the sentiment index increased to 73 from 70.5 with expectations leading the increase. The election should not ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall despite hurricane’s impact
The fall in initial jobless claims last week aligns with a strong labor market, despite the recent impact of Hurricane Milton. Total initial claims dropped to 227,000 from 242,000 for the week ending Oct. 18, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Florida’s new filings for claims spiked last week, ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits ease in September
Housing starts and building permits pulled back in September after a red-hot August, suggesting that the road to a housing market rebound won’t be smooth, even as interest rates drop. The market remains demand-driven, with the current and future supply of new homes staying below the threshold for a ... READ MORE >
September retail sales top forecasts
American consumers remained upbeat about the economy in September as spending at retail stores and online exceeded consensus forecasts. Retail sales for all items increased by 0.4% while the control group grew by 0.7% in September. Our forecasts had called for a 0.5% increase for both numbers, so the ... READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, final demand inflation was unchanged in September, while the core reading grew more slowly ... READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
For much of the past two decades, firms, investors and policymakers lived off the easy money of historically low interest rates. That era has ended. Short of another black swan event, it is not coming back. Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those ... READ MORE >
Service sector showed fastest growth in nearly two years
The significant increase in service activities in September was an encouraging surprise given the growing concerns over slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management said on Thursday that its service sector index grew to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August. That was the fastest pace of growth ... READ MORE >