New filings for unemployment benefits continued to climb last week, reaching 248,000 and nearing our threshold of 250,000 that suggests risk of a recession. … READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Trade deficit plunges in April, yet signals trouble ahead
The U.S. total trade deficit plunged to its lowest level since 2023—just a month after it spiked to a record high. … READ MORE >
Tariffs take a toll on services, raising fresh stagflation concerns
Service-sector activity contracted in May for the first time since June 2024, falling to 49.9 and confirming our expectations ahead of the Institute for Supply Management’s report on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Job openings surpass expectations but labor market shows signs of stress
Job openings held up in April, rising above market expectations with a boost from the service sector. The total number of openings rose to 7.39 million from 7.2 million in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Tariffs weigh on manufacturing and construction
The impact of tariffs on manufacturing activity was in full force in May, according to business executives surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management, as falling demand and rising prices occurred simultaneously. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Can businesses absorb the cost of tariffs?
Wherever the effective tariff rate ends up, any reduction in margins because of the significant increase in trade taxes will result in reduced growth, higher inflation and rising unemployment. … READ MORE >
Rising continuing claims and falling profits signal labor market strain
Since April, the number of continuing claims has broken the 1.9 million threshold twice, including last week—a level higher than any seen in 2019, before the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Equipment orders slide in April, showing impact of tariffs
Even with some recent easing in tensions, uncertainty surrounding trade policy remains high. Business spending is likely to remain largely frozen in the months ahead. … READ MORE >
Cracks in spending and manufacturing begin to form
April retail sales showed a sharp turn in consumer spending at retail stores and restaurants, following months of stockpiling ahead of tariffs. … READ MORE >
Service providers saw a jump in prices in April
The top-line ISM service sector index rose to 51.6 from 50.8, while the prices paid subindex rose to 65.1 from 60.9. … READ MORE >