The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those businesses—are adapting to the return of a positive term premium in the price of money. … READ MORE >
Service sector showed fastest growth in nearly two years
The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector index grew to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August. … READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the increase in the unemployment rate from 2023 to 2024 can be explained by the increase in labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to new additions from immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the U.S. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing and labor markets give mixed signals amid Fed’s pivot
The ISM manufacturing index for September stayed unchanged at 47.2, indicating a contraction of overall activity for the sixth consecutive month. … READ MORE >
Inflation falls to lowest level since February 2021
With the productivity boom and more interest rate cuts coming, the economy is poised to repeat the economic growth and prosperity of the 1990s. … READ MORE >
Robust economic revisions defy recession doubts
Significant revisions to income and gross domestic product from 2020 through last year help explain why the market underestimated the continuing robust economic rebound. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales and industrial production beat expectations
The data should temper the market’s concern about growth that has triggered calls for a 50 basis-point cut in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate at its meeting this week. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises on improved outlook for inflation and spending
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 69 in the first half of September, up from 67.9 earlier. … READ MORE >
Producer inflation and initial jobless claims stabilize further
While the producer price index came out slightly higher than forecasted at 0.3% on the month and 1.7% on a year-ago basis, it remained on a moderating trend with July’s number being revised down. … READ MORE >