We would urge investors, firm managers and policymakers not to overinterpret the temporary factors driving the top-line decline and to expect a similar dynamic in the November jobs estimate. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report
October jobs report will be distorted by hurricane and strike
We expect a top-line gain in total employment of roughly 120,000 jobs, which is approximately 80,000 below what our model would otherwise imply. … READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The jobs data released Friday strongly suggests that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points on Nov. 7 at its next meeting. … READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the increase in the unemployment rate from 2023 to 2024 can be explained by the increase in labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to new additions from immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the U.S. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing and labor markets give mixed signals amid Fed’s pivot
The ISM manufacturing index for September stayed unchanged at 47.2, indicating a contraction of overall activity for the sixth consecutive month. … READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: A soft landing in the economy
Hiring is cooling and we expect that will define the second half of the year as firms manage their mix of capital and labor to meet demand. … READ MORE >
Expect strong U.S. jobs report for August, but the devil is in the details
We expect a net gain in total employment of 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% when the employment report is released on Sept. 6. … READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report to show a gain of 200,000 jobs
The second, and more important, element of the jobs report will be the direction of the unemployment rate, which has been rising as more people, lured by rising wages, enter the workforce. … READ MORE >
Slower pace of hiring in June bolsters case for Fed rate cut
The June jobs report should send a signal to the Fed that with inflation sitting at 2.6%, conditions are aligning for a rate cut in September. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Strong demand for labor continues its remarkable run in May
Labor demand continues to increase at a remarkably strong pace, which removes the prospect of a July rate hike and creates the sense that the Federal Reserve may fall further behind other central banks as they pivot to lower rates. … READ MORE >