Apprehension expressed by economic and financial pundits about potential runaway inflation and higher interest rates in the wake of the U.S. Treasury’s recent issuance of bonds is high. The concern follows the government’s plan to issue $3 trillion in fresh debt to help fund pandemic-era fiscal stimulus ... READ MORE >
yield curve
How the Fed responds to economic downturns
Since the 1970s, the Federal Reserve has relied on manipulating expectations of short-term interest rates through cuts in its overnight policy rate in response to economic and manufacturing slowdowns. Reducing interest rates is thought to facilitate investment, which is necessary for economic growth and ... READ MORE >
The Fed walked a tightrope in cutting rates, and succeeded
In July, the Fed did what markets had been pushing for when it cut the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point. But rather than calm the markets, the Fed only added to the concern when it did not send a clear message that there were more cuts to come. Advocates for more rate cuts maintained ... READ MORE >
Low treasury rate is a boost for home builders, neutral for commercial real estate
Bonds have been declining in recent weeks following a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve and expectations of further cuts amid rising concerns over an impending recession. Recession concerns were underscored Wednesday by the inversion of the U.S. and U.K. two- and 10-year yield curves and ... READ MORE >
Real negative yields signal business cycle nearing an end
The increasing probability that the U.S.-China trade and financial war will be a permanent feature of the global economic landscape is the catalyst for the inversion of the two-year-10-year Treasury yield curve on Wednesday. This inversion of that portion of the curve is the first since June 2007, which ... READ MORE >
RSM’s Joe Brusuelas talks GDP and economic outlook with Bloomberg radio
Despite a slowing economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas tells Bloomberg radio that "a recession is just not in the cards this year" unless the administration or the Federal Reserve "makes a major mistake." Brusuelas was responding to questions about a March 22 inversion of the yield curve, a ... READ MORE >