Demand for discretionary services remains stubbornly strong despite a slower pace of hiring and a softer pace of wage growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Liquidity warning in the money markets
Money market funds have so far been willing to absorb the issuance of short-term Treasury bills. But how long can that condition hold? … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations and the credibility of Fed policy
Does the Fed have the credibility not only to cut its policy rate next week but also to reduce it further in the following months, to the long-run neutral rate of 3% without stoking inflation? … READ MORE >
BLS revisions show 911,000 fewer jobs created than estimated
Between April 2024 and March 2025, the economy generated 911,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated using survey-based data, according to the BLS. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Treasury expands its buyback program
The U.S. Treasury plans to extend its buyback program to additional $26 billion of outstanding debt, predominantly longer-maturity notes and bonds. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. oil producers facing headwinds as global supply grows
The futures prices of the benchmark West Texas Intermediate have fallen below $61 per barrel over the next 12 months on news that OPEC+ intends to increase production. … READ MORE >
Labor market loses steam as hiring rises by 22,000 in August
The slow hire, slow fire economy remained intact in August as the demand for new workers continued to sag, resulting in the creation of 22,000 jobs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The declining labor supply, the jobless rate and Fed policy
If the labor force participation rate had held at its 2023-24 average of 62.6% and all else remained the same, the unemployment rate would be sitting near 4.85% compared with the current 4.24%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. August jobs report to show mild gain of 45,000
We anticipate that the unemployment rate will climb to 4.3% while average hourly earnings will advance by 0.3% on the month. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Investors demanding rising compensation on long-dated government debt
Even as central banks cut policy rates and push rates down at the front end of the curve, investors are demanding a greater premium for holding longer-dated debt. … READ MORE >