Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) fell to 1.7% in April thanks to the removal of the consumer carbon price and lower crude oil prices. For now, price increases associated with U.S. tariffs seem to have been kept at bay. The end of the consumer carbon tax should continue to apply … … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Something’s got to give in financial markets
Now, as the impact of tariffs begins to hit consumers, it would not be surprising if investors push yields higher and the dollar lower. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fiscal policy in the spotlight after U.S. credit rating downgrade
Following the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s from Aaa to Aa1, we expect a rising risk premium across the Treasury curve. … READ MORE >
Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the rising term premium
Yields could very well rise in the near term with the 30-year Treasury note testing 5% and the 10-year approaching 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations surge as effective tariff rate hits 17.8%
The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Strategic autonomy, India and the U.S. trade relationship
While there is ample room for India to lower its tariffs, it is doubtful that India will give much on its oil imports or any framework that restricts efforts to move up the value chain in the global economy. … READ MORE >
Cracks in spending and manufacturing begin to form
April retail sales showed a sharp turn in consumer spending at retail stores and restaurants, following months of stockpiling ahead of tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The bond market is not buying it
Fixed-income investors are sniffing out the logic of economic populism amid a move toward trade protectionism, which strongly implies higher inflation and rising long-term yields. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Household stress evident in rising delinquencies
The U.S. Household Debt and Credit Report, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shows growing signs of stress, particularly when it comes to credit cards and student loans. … READ MORE >
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >