Canada’s economy could benefit from strong growth in the United States during a second Trump administration. The U.S. dollar surged on Wednesday against all major currencies as promises of generous tax cuts and lax regulations attract more capital into the U.S. And while the rising tide might not ... READ MORE >
Economics
The Trump restoration and the U.S. economy
The Trump restoration was resonating across financial markets on Wednesday with the prospect that Donald Trump's second presidential administration will almost certainly bolster economic conditions should a round of tax cuts occur next year. Under such conditions, one should expect rising disposable ... READ MORE >
The increased attractiveness of corporate bonds as the Fed cuts rates
We expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. We anticipate an uneventful meeting given its proximity to the presidential election and the flexibility that the Fed will need heading into its December meeting ... READ MORE >
Distortions in the October U.S. jobs report mask underlying strength
The October jobs report is to be taken seriously but not literally. Once one adds the downward revision of 112,000 jobs for August and September to the 12,000 gain in October, there was a decline in total employment of 100,000 inside the report. We would urge investors, firm managers and ... READ MORE >
Strong gains in Income and spending boost economic growth in September
Robust spending, increasing income and the re-establishment of price stability amid strong productivity gains are the primary factors shaping the economic narrative. American households are well positioned to keep spending at a 3% to 3.5% pace as inflation moves back to 2% and real wages continue ... READ MORE >
American economic outperformance continues as GDP expands by 2.8%
American economic outperformance continued into the third quarter as the first estimate of U.S. gross domestic product showed a 2.8% increase. The gains were driven by robust household spending, which increased by 3.7%, strong nonresidential investment, which rose by 3.3% featuring a robust 11.1% rise ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence strengthens despite cooling labor demand
The drop in job openings and the rebound in consumer confidence are consistent with a soft-landing scenario, which we believe has been the reality in recent months. While the lower number of job vacancies signaled reduced demand pressure in September, hirings improved while job quits continued to ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions improve in Canada and U.S., setting stage for growth
Financial conditions continue to improve both in Canada and in the United States, signaling stability in markets and setting the groundwork for economic growth. RSM's proprietary financial conditions indexes are based on the level of risk or accommodation in four asset markets: stocks, money markets, ... READ MORE >
A nascent dollar bloc: Re-globalization amid U.S.-Chinese tensions
The fragmenting of free trade around the world and the rise of industrial policy have resulted in the nascent formation of a trade, finance and currency bloc organized around American economic and security interests. Although not formalized, the democracies in the West and their primary trading ... READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment falls in September, but orders pick up
Durable goods orders fell in September for the second month in a row, driven largely by drops in Boeing orders. According to the Commerce Department, orders for goods that last three years or more fell 0.8% on a monthly basis, following a downward revision of another 0.8% drop in August. However, our ... READ MORE >