In holding the policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, the Federal Open Market Committee also signaled the possibility of two rate cuts this year, … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Central banks not immune to rising gas futures
Between May 30 and June 17, gas futures increased by 10.2% in the United States and by 16% in Europe. … READ MORE >
Retail sales send mixed signals amid trade uncertainty
Retail sales in May offered a muddled picture of consumer behavior, suggesting that while American households remain in decent shape, their appetite for spending is showing signs of fatigue. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are stocks in Alfred E. Neuman territory?
After months of wild swings, the S&P 500 index is back near its record high. But there are warning signs. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada expectations for the second half of 2025
The Bank of Canada prioritizes price stability as a source of consistency and confidence in an uncertain environment. Here’s what to watch in the second half of 2025. … READ MORE >
Canadian housing data shows growing imbalances amid economic tension
Canada’s housing starts appear steady at first glance—but below that surface-level stability, there are growing imbalances at the provincial level. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inventory cushion may be holding down inflation
Even as some goods showed early signs of tariff-induced inflation, businesses have for the most part managed to absorb the cost of the new trade taxes. … READ MORE >
The U.S. is in better position to endure an oil and gas shock
Overall, the impact of the most recent Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy will be muted, but the risks of the conflict expanding remain. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Patience is a virtue for the Fed
Based on our own model and the central bank’s recent rhetoric, the Fed will be and should be in no hurry to cut rates given the risk around the economic outlook. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims increased again. Is it time to worry?
New filings for unemployment benefits continued to climb last week, reaching 248,000 and nearing our threshold of 250,000 that suggests risk of a recession. … READ MORE >