I expect a monthly increase of 0.3% in the top-line figure and the core, and annual increases of 2.8% for top line and 3% for the core. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: U.S. economy stuck in neutral, key Citi index suggests
Recent developments imply a possible economic turning point in the business cycle—and understanding economic surprise indices is key. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What trade policy whiplash could mean for inventories
Businesses experiencing trade policy whiplash are seeking to get as much as possible into U.S. ports before higher import taxes are enforced. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Manufacturing stuck in slow growth despite increased shipments
While shipments of durable goods manufactured in the U.S. are increasing, it’s clear that manufacturing is stuck in a period of slow growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. economy rests on the wealthy continuing to spend
The K-shaped economy that has defined the U.S. in the post-pandemic era is predicated on upper-income groups continuing to spend at a strong clip. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Financial market volatility could be returning—here’s why
After days of repose to start the summer, conditions are aligning for a return of financial market volatility for the rest of the year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What’s keeping interest rates so high? The risk premium.
The market appears to be pricing in the possibility of additional rate hikes should inflation continue to increase as tariffs are implemented. … READ MORE >
The big chill hits the labor market as job creation cools in July
Job creation in July slowed to 73,000 in July on the back of a large downward revision of 258,000 in May and June, capturing a big chill spreading out over the domestic economy and labor market. In addition, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, but that increase was partially masked … … READ MORE >
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge accelerates in June as tariffs bite
Inflation picked up in June, driven largely by tariffs, according to the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. July jobs report preview
We expect a net gain of 150,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% when the U.S. employment report for July is released on Friday. … READ MORE >