In this winter of discontent, there is little in the near term that will provide much relief to households and firms that populate the lower spur of the K-shaped economy. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Equity market downturn has likely run its course
Our preferred metric of equity market performance implies that the recent market downturn, led by artificial intelligence firms, has reached its end, or is about to. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut
Investors are now pricing in the near certainty of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its meeting on Dec. 9-10. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Financial conditions easing amid reassessment of risk
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has drifted lower in recent weeks, with its subcomponents showing greater volatility and lackluster results. … READ MORE >
The UK Autumn Budget: An exercise in can kicking
The risk now is that initial positive market reactions wane over the next few days and weeks as more details from this complex budget become clearer. … READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment rises as uncertainty eases
American businesses in September posted a third straight month of strong spending growth after a period of extreme volatility. … READ MORE >
RSM UK’s outlook for 2026: Fiscal contraction brings short-term pain
A large fiscal contraction combined with weak consumer confidence and sagging business sentiment means we expect growth of only 0.8% in 2026. … READ MORE >
Retail sales fall below forecasts as demand slows
The shift in the spending cycle because of tariffs might explain why consumers pulled back in September after front-running new tariffs over the summer. … READ MORE >
RSM Canada’s outlook for 2026: A struggle for growth amid trade tensions
We expect Canada to have another modest year of growth in 2026 amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States and a continuing oil glut that will dampen export prices. … READ MORE >
RSM’s U.S. outlook for 2026: An acceleration in growth
We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, with the PCE inflation rate reaching 2.7% and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. … READ MORE >