A trade agreement where the details are still being negotiated is not an agreement. It’s a memorandum of understanding that over time may yield a productive framework for trade or not. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: External purchases of U.S. Treasury notes
While foreign purchases of Treasury securities remain stout, they have declined from a cyclical peak, with five-year bond yields falling since the beginning of the year. … READ MORE >
Fed maintains rates but signals risk of stagflation
The Federal Open Market Committee held its policy rate steady in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% on Wednesday. But the Fed updated its policy statement in which it highlighted the risk of stagflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why OPEC+ is increasing oil production amid lower prices
While lower oil prices often translate to lower gasoline prices, the recent decoupling between oil and gas prices shows there’s more at play. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Oil prices are falling, so why not gas?
Since hitting $80 a barrel on Jan. 15, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude has fallen by nearly 30%, hitting $56.69 on May 5. Retail gasoline prices, meanwhile, have risen slightly. … READ MORE >
Service providers saw a jump in prices in April
The top-line ISM service sector index rose to 51.6 from 50.8, while the prices paid subindex rose to 65.1 from 60.9. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Part-time employment boosted jobs numbers, but it won’t last
The rise in transportation and warehousing employment in April can be attributed to businesses front-running the tariffs. … READ MORE >
Trade shocks, employment and the coming recession
Another disruption to U.S. supply chains through trade policy will mark the end of the current business cycle as the economy slips into recession. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: April was the cruelest month. Now, all eyes are on the Fed.
We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% with little to no change in the policy statement when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on May 6 and 7. … READ MORE >
Last call on the current business cycle? U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April.
The labor market expanded at a solid pace in April, which should be taken as a positive given the price shock that will soon begin showing up. … READ MORE >