While net long positions on the U.S. dollar versus its Canadian counterpart are below the peak of last October, the possible onset of significant tariffs on Canadian imports into the U.S. has taken a toll on the Canadian dollar. Should higher tariffs on Canada announced by the United States take ... READ MORE >
Economics
Market minute: The ripple effect of higher European defense spending
The emergency defense summit in Paris on Monday on the eve of negotiations over the war in Ukraine strongly implies that a large increase in defense spending among European Union nations is coming. That outlay may be as large as $3.1 trillion over the next decade, Bloomberg reported. Any such move ... READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. housing supply is not meeting demand
U.S. housing completions have declined from a cyclical high of 1.763 million annually last August to a recent low of 1.544 million. That decline is likely to continue and fall below 1.45 million given that homes under construction ended last year at 1.431 million. Although housing starts are a more ... READ MORE >
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the United States, the new administration has set out to change this equation with nothing less than a rebalancing of the global economy. Today, a new mercantilism, rooted in tariffs and trade protection, is emerging. We define ... READ MORE >
The decline in January retail sales is less concerning than it might seem
A combination of factors—including the holiday hangover, seasonal noise, wildfires and severe cold weather—contributed to the downside surprise in retail sales in January. Sales fell by 0.9% on the month with the control group—which feeds into GDP—falling by 0.8%. Even though the data was reported ... READ MORE >
Market minute: Clash of the titans to cause further currency manipulation
Trade War 2.0 between China and the United States will stimulate further currency manipulation out of China to partially offset the 10% tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by the new administration. Now, with China imposing $14 billion on trade taxes on goods, it is likely that a series of tit-for-tat ... READ MORE >
Producer inflation topped forecasts in January, led by food and energy prices
The producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.4% in January, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in December, making it the hottest two-month stretch of inflation since February last year. The main drivers were food and energy prices, which rose by 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively. Excluding those ... READ MORE >
Market minute: Money markets signal an easing in 10-year yields
A look at the spread between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in comparison with the Treasury term premium implies room for further easing in long-term yields. Our forecast calls for the 10-year yield to average 4.5% this year, trading between 4.3% and 4.7% and testing 5%. Through Feb. 10, ... READ MORE >
Inflation accelerates in January amid concerns about rising expectations
Strong aggregate demand driven by job gains and rising real wages that in turn supported robust demand for services, rents and energy resulted in a 0.5% increase in the top-line consumer price index in January and a 0.4% advance in core inflation. A year-ago basis, the index increased by 3% and core ... READ MORE >
Market minute: The problem of sticky and stubborn inflation
The consumer price index for January, which will be released this morning, will most likely reaffirm that service sector inflation remains sticky and stubborn amid strong job and wage gains that are the primary drivers of aggregate demand. While housing inflation is easing, owners’ equivalent rent ... READ MORE >