Consumer confidence edged up in November to its highest level in more than a year, driven by improved sentiment about both the current economic situation and future expectations. The consumer confidence index rose to 111.7 from an upwardly revised 109.6, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday. The ... READ MORE >
Economics
China’s economic challenge: Elevated external debt and its dirty float
In the year ahead, trade tensions between the United States and China are likely to spill over into a trade skirmish at best and trade conflict at worst. A Chinese economy caught in a debt and deleveraging trap is likely to face the additional strain of a sharp increase in tariffs on goods sold into ... READ MORE >
Post-election outlook: A webinar from RSM US and U.S. Chamber of Commerce
With the results of the election now in, investors and firm managers are looking ahead to the policies of a second Trump administration and a changed Congress. Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the economic ... READ MORE >
Capital flows into the U.S. to challenge global economy
The U.S. dollar on a trade-weighted basis has increased by 7.53% over the past year because of growth and interest rate differentials between the U.S. and its major trade partners. The dollar is set to soar in the next year amid an expansionary fiscal policy and a new tariff regime. The combination ... READ MORE >
Year ahead in Canada: Return to growth as rate cuts take hold
Price stability will fuel economic expansion in 2025 as the Bank of Canada reduces interest rates to a low of 2.75 per cent within the first half of the year. The rate cuts will encourage investment and risk-taking, reduce financing costs on Canada’s elevated debt and put more cash in consumers’ ... READ MORE >
As European economy deteriorates, ECB needs to be more aggressive
Good morning. The European Central Bank is clearly going to need to get far more aggressive in its easing campaign as the continental economy, led by the underperformance of Germany and France, slips back into pull of recession’s gravity. The ECB should now consider a 50-basis point cut at its next ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits fall in October as hurricanes take a toll
Housing starts and building permits in the United States fell in October for the second straight month largely because of the two hurricanes in the South and the recent rebound in mortgage rates. Housing starts, a key indicator of residential real estate performance within gross domestic product, ... READ MORE >
Canada’s prices for services and shelter decelerated in October
Canada’s consumer price index accelerated in October, but that increase will not deter a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December, though the size of the cut is up for debate. Canada’s CPI accelerated to 2.0 per cent, up from 1.6 per cent in September, because of a smaller decline in gasoline prices ... READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
Since the American economy emerged from the shocks of the pandemic, we have made the case that it is undergoing a fundamental structural change. The end of historically low interest rates, the adoption of policies aimed at bolstering vital national industries and the influx of foreign capital have all ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales decelerated in October
Retail sales growth was softer in October, following a stronger-than-expected September report, which had sharp upward revisions, the Census Bureau reported on Friday. The mixed results should not change the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate in December. That probability has ... READ MORE >