The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model estimates that the CPI will have reached 3% in September and the first weeks of October. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Impact of the shutdown goes nonlinear
As the government shutdown continues, we expect a 0.25% drag on GDP per week, or 1% per month. … READ MORE >
Canada’s economy slowing as major free-trade renegotiation looms
Canada’s subdued economic activity and the drop in inflation despite ongoing tariffs imply that the Bank of Canada could cut interest rates again this year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Tariff revenues, rates and rebates
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency is collecting tariffs at a rate of $30 billion per month compared with the $6.8 billion per month normally collected from importers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: French-German yield spread to widen on political risk
The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds is spiking as France’s government once again comes under pressure. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Persistent inflation across the G-7
While central banks have adhered to a policy maintaining inflation at a 2% target, only Canada and France have kept inflation below 2% over the past 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Increased risk appetite for high-yield bonds
Despite uncertainty caused by changing economic policies, investor interest in high-yield corporate debt is providing a tailwind for the economy. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Subdued forecasts for growth in developed economies
The OECD points to further downside risks to international trade, increased concerns about the fiscal health of the economies, renewed inflation pressures and financial instability. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Policy uncertainty spikes after shutdown
On Sept. 30, as the shutdown deadline approached, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index jumped to 528 from 298 the previous day, and it has remained elevated. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rate cuts are taking longer to have an impact
The lag time between rate cuts and when those cuts are felt in the real economy is increasing, whether it’s in consumer spending or businesses taking on more risk. … READ MORE >