Canada’s jobs report for December exceeded expectations in several ways, a credit to a resilient economy poised to grow as more rate cuts are expected from the Bank of Canada. The economy added 91,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped 0.1 percentage points to 6.7 per cent. The employment rate ... READ MORE >
Economics
American exceptionalism: Job gains of 256,000 to temper calls for further rate cuts
American exceptionalism is the primary takeaway from one of the more remarkable years in labor market dynamics over the past half century as the economy generated 256,000 new jobs in December. That increase stands well above the 100,000 to 150,000 level that is necessary to keep employment ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Net immigration, population growth and U.S. employment
The U.S. December employment report will most likely show a net increase of 180,000 jobs with the risk of a stronger print because of seasonal fluctuations, a post-hurricane rebound in hiring as well as solid gains in government, health care, education, and leisure and hospitality, The unemployment is ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: India’s rising capital buffer and the end of its currency peg
As India has gained prominence in the global economy, its central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, has wisely increased the level of foreign exchange holdings. These reserves are necessary to maintain payments for imports should there be a global economic financial crisis or a sudden devaluation of the ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The end of the Indian rupee’s effective dollar peg
A currency is a two-sided instrument. In the case of the Indian rupee-U.S. dollar exchange rate, the demand for the rupee has been overwhelmed by the demand for the dollar and a loss of competitiveness over the two years that the Reserve Bank of India has maintained a de-facto peg to the dollar. Now, ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Do frothy financial markets present risk in 2025?
It is said that the economy is not the stock market. That is true; however, the stock market is critical to supporting household spending. In our contemporary K-shaped economy, where higher-income consumers have thrived while those with lower incomes have struggled, paying close attention to the link ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: US term premium and higher yields
The decomposition of bond yields rests on two factors: first, expectations, or the average of future short-term interest rates; and second, a term premium that reflects compensation demanded by investors to hold riskier long-term bonds. Given that expectations are anchored by Federal Reserve policy ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest level since April
Initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to 211,000 for the last week of December, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The decline put initial claims at their the lowest level since April, fully offsetting the spike in the summer, which by now is looking more like seasonal volatility. Read ... READ MORE >
Identifying countries at risk as the U.S. dollar surges
Over the past year the real trade-weighted dollar index has appreciated 6.88% because of a combination of interest rate differentials, strong growth and expectations of reduced regulation, lower taxes and increased government spending. With these trends showing no sign of easing, the greenback will ... READ MORE >
Stubborn inflation not stopping the U.S. consumer from spending
Stubborn and sticky inflation did not prevent the American consumer from tapping rising real incomes in November as the economy approached the traditional holiday season. Personal income increased by 0.3%, personal spending by 0.4% and real spending by 0.3% as households used the 1.1% increase in ... READ MORE >