Further evidence of disinflation and the return of price stability are the primary takeaways from the inflation data released on Thursday as the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in September and by 2.4% on a year-ago basis. The primary catalysts for the modest increase in top-line inflation ... READ MORE >
Economics
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
For much of the past two decades, firms, investors and policymakers lived off the easy money of historically low interest rates. That era has ended. Short of another black swan event, it is not coming back. Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those ... READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The U.S. economy generated 254,000 jobs in September, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% as growth continues to barrel along at or above a 3% pace. When taken out to three digits, the jobless rate was 4.051%, which means it narrowly missed the Federal Reserve’s 4% ... READ MORE >
Service sector showed fastest growth in nearly two years
The significant increase in service activities in September was an encouraging surprise given the growing concerns over slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management said on Thursday that its service sector index grew to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August. That was the fastest pace of growth ... READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the rise in the unemployment rate since last year can be explained by the increase in the labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the United States. Even though ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing and labor markets give mixed signals amid Fed’s pivot
The mixed signals from data on job openings and the ISM manufacturing index, both released on Tuesday, offer a nuanced picture of the economy as the Federal Reserve transitions to a period to lower rates. During the transition of interest rates, not everything will go in the same direction. Elevated ... READ MORE >
U.S. port strike will have a modest impact on GDP
The strike by port workers along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States will provide a modest hit to GDP of a little more than 0.1 percentage points per week, or roughly $4.3 billion in lost exports and imports. If sustained, that impact would result in roughly a half percentage point shaved ... READ MORE >
Inflation falls to lowest level since February 2021
August’s data on spending and inflation should put an end to the debate on whether the economy has achieved a soft landing and avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, dropped to 2.2% on a year-ago basis, the lowest since ... READ MORE >
Robust economic revisions defy recession doubts
While many are concerned that the economy is heading toward a recession, new data on spending and the labor market suggest otherwise. It's hard to bet against the American economy when the most recent data has surprised to the upside. Significant revisions to income and gross domestic product from 2020 ... READ MORE >
American outperformance in the post-pandemic global economy
One of the more underdiscussed economic developments following the shocks of the pandemic has been the United States’ outperformance compared to its peers. This success can be traced to bold monetary and fiscal policies put in place that have hardened supply chains, bolstered energy independence and ... READ MORE >