Further evidence of disinflation and the return of price stability are the primary takeaways from the inflation data released on Thursday as the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in September and by 2.4% on a year-ago basis. The primary catalysts for the modest increase in top-line inflation ... READ MORE >
Inflation
Consumer sentiment rises on improved outlook for inflation and spending
The rebound in consumer sentiment to the highest level in four months, as seen in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index released on Friday, is encouraging as the outlook for inflation and spending improved. As inflation continues to moderate—seen also in the survey’s results—and ... READ MORE >
Producer inflation and initial jobless claims stabilize further
While the producer price index came out slightly higher than forecasted at 0.3% on the month and 1.7% on a year-ago basis on Thursday, it remained on a moderating trend with July’s number being revised down. For 18 consecutive months, producer inflation has been in the 2% range or below on a year-ago ... READ MORE >
U.S. August CPI: Further signs of moderation as energy prices decline
Inflation inside the consumer price index continued to moderate in August as the top-line figure increased by 0.2% on the month and by 2.5% on a year-ago basis. Core inflation increased by 0.3% and 3.2%, respectively, on the back of a 1% decline in used cars and truck prices as well as an 0.8% drop in ... READ MORE >
Financial markets update: Front-running the Fed’s first cut, and our new call on rates
Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate and signal a series of further cuts through next year at its next meeting on Sept. 18. Those expectations have resulted in a notable decline in 10-year bond yields. By the second week of August, investors had pushed 10-year Treasury ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge shows price stability as consumers hit the accelerator
Disinflation, strong household consumption and incomes rising above the rate of inflation continue to be the defining narrative of the U.S. economy as it heads into the second half of the year. With the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, ... READ MORE >
Second quarter GDP is revised higher amid stronger consumer spending
The growth scare that rocked the market in early August looks premature after the release of new data on gross domestic product and jobless claims. Growth was stronger in the second quarter, revised up to 3.0%, than the first estimate, driven largely by a sharp upward revision to consumer spending, ... READ MORE >
The TIPS bond market sees 2.1% inflation over the next 10 years
As inflation moves back toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, investors and firm managers will be looking at market-based measures of inflation expectations to make their decisions. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are one of those measures used to make such ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation fell to 2.5 per cent, solidifying case for rate cut
Canada’s consumer price index fell to 2.5 per cent in July, the lowest level since March 2021, solidifying the case for the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate this month. The disinflation was broad-based and included components from food to recreation and, most notably, shelter. All measures of ... READ MORE >
Seven reasons why the U.S. economy will not fall into recession
Market panics are a normal part of American business cycles. The recent scare, driven by a combination of slower hiring and the partial unwinding of the global carry trade, stands in contrast with resilient household spending, a fiscal tailwind and solid, if unspectacular, fixed business investment in the ... READ MORE >