Consumer confidence slid again in October, a stark contrast to the high-flying rally in the equity markets—a reflection of what we call the K-shaped economy. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Market Minute: At FOMC meeting, a rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening
The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to reduce its federal funds policy rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4% at its meeting on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
U.S. September CPI: A perfect K-shaped economic report
The September CPI data gives cover to the Fed to cut rates on Oct. 29 and in December as inflation eased a bit on a monthly basis, to 0.3%, and ticked up on an annual basis to 3%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Financial conditions, rate cuts and the FOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4% at its next meeting on Oct. 29. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Focus on food prices and inflation expectations in the CPI
The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model estimates that the CPI will have reached 3% in September and the first weeks of October. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.5% amid economic, labour challenges
The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate to 2.5 per cent as a slowing economy and rising unemployment likely contributed to the unexpected policy action. … READ MORE >
Stagflation is the story in August CPI as discretionary service prices surge
Demand for discretionary services remains stubbornly strong despite a slower pace of hiring and a softer pace of wage growth. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations and the credibility of Fed policy
Does the Fed have the credibility not only to cut its policy rate next week but also to reduce it further in the following months, to the long-run neutral rate of 3% without stoking inflation? … READ MORE >
Canada’s economy in sore need of an interest rate cut as job losses mount
Canada’s economy lost jobs in back-to-back months for the first time since 2021, pushing the odds of an interest rate cut this month significantly higher. … READ MORE >
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >