Canada’s economy lost jobs in back-to-back months for the first time since 2021, pushing the odds of an interest rate cut this month significantly higher. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >
Rising inflation, increased spending complicate Fed’s next decision
While nominal gains in spending and income look strong on the topline, adjusting for inflation is necessary—and subsequently implies an economy that is growing just above 1 percent. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Diverging inflation expectations
Policy decisions by the Federal Reserve will rest upon whether it thinks that higher tariffs will result in a one-time increase in prices or persistent inflation. … READ MORE >
Wrong data at the right time: Mixed data complicates Fed’s decision
A lot is happening in the economy, but one trend has become clear: The economy is slowing but not enough to guarantee a rate cut. … READ MORE >
Tariffs drive producer prices higher, squeezing margins
Equity markets, buoyed in recent months by solid earnings, may face pressure as profit margins shrink after companies absorb tariff costs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are foreign exporters paying tariffs?
Most of the initial costs of tariffs are being absorbed by domestic firms and households. … READ MORE >
In the July CPI, the temperature is rising in the core
The U.S. consumer price index in July saw a meaningful increase, driven by sticky service sector pricing and tariff-induced price increases, which are all over the report. … READ MORE >
The big chill hits the labor market as job creation cools in July
Job creation in July slowed to 73,000 in July on the back of a large downward revision of 258,000 in May and June, capturing a big chill spreading out over the domestic economy and labor market. In addition, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, but that increase was partially masked … … READ MORE >
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge accelerates in June as tariffs bite
Inflation picked up in June, driven largely by tariffs, according to the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. … READ MORE >