The CPI data affirmed the growing inclination at the Fed that any further rate cuts—if there are any at all this year— should be postponed until the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Identifying countries at risk as the U.S. dollar surges
This rise in the dollar will cause economic challenges around the world, with those in the emerging markets likely to face greater adjustment problems as they face a rising cost of external debt paid in dollars. … READ MORE >
Stubborn inflation not stopping the U.S. consumer from spending
Personal income increased by 0.3%, personal spending by 0.4% and real spending by 0.3% as households used robust gains in disposable income. … READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3.25% as focus shifts to gap with U.S.
The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.25 per cent — an overdue move out of restrictive territory given that inflation has largely been tamed. Expect more rate cuts in early 2025 to get the economy onto an expansionary trajectory. The policy rate should come down to 2.75 … … READ MORE >
Inflation ticks up amid seasonal factors and strong growth
November marked the first month since April when overall CPI inflation grew by 0.3% monthly, or 3.7% annualized, well above the Fed’s 2% target. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job market cools as unemployment rises to 6.8%
The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent — the highest since January 2017—as more people looked for work. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Will wage growth moderate?
A look at U.S. wage growth ahead of the November U.S. jobs report to be released today should translate to a gain of 3.9% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
given the looming fiscal and trade policy changes, it is growing more likely that the central bank will pause its rate-cutting campaign to ascertain their impact on the economy. … READ MORE >