American spending moderated in April as U.S. businesses pulled back significantly on imports after months of pulling forward economic activity to avoid higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Inflation falls in Canada as end of consumer carbon tax offsets other increases
Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) fell to 1.7% in April thanks to the removal of the consumer carbon price and lower crude oil prices. For now, price increases associated with U.S. tariffs seem to have been kept at bay. The end of the consumer carbon tax should continue to apply … … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations surge as effective tariff rate hits 17.8%
The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: CPI will start to reflect tariffs, especially in used autos
The April consumer price index will provide insight in the early days of the current trade conflict when it is released Wednesday as signs of rising prices for apparel, autos, shoes and toys will begin to appear. … READ MORE >
Canada’s weakened financial conditions point to slower growth
Canada’s financial conditions have deteriorated as the prospect of slower economic growth looms in the coming quarters amid tariff-induced uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising inflation expectations could send yields higher today
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, to be released on Monday, carries the risk of sending yields higher across the curve. … READ MORE >
U.S. households pull forward spending as PCE inflation remains sticky
Households are preparing for what they believe will be another price shock caused by an increase in the costs of goods through a policy-induced trade shock. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level since early 2023
Most notably, inflation expectations worsened, with the 12-month gauge advancing to 4.9% and the five-to-10 metric increasing to 3.9%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The policy determinants of the rising euro
The euro is poised to appreciate against the dollar as the continent loosens fiscal restraints to rebuild its defenses. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Soft economic landing at risk
Businesses, and the economy overall, face uncertainty amid the regime change in the global economy. … READ MORE >