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CHART OF THE DAY: A shifting holiday spending calendar

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Retailer expectations about the start of the holiday spending season appear to have shifted earlier. About half of the retailers surveyed by the National Retail Federation said they anticipated that consumers have already started their holiday spending in October, while 62% of retailers said they expected to have a majority of their merchandise in stock. This appears to be somewhat earlier than in the past, and 52% of survey participants noted that they had started their advertising and promotions.

Retailers’ holiday timeline and expectations

The pulling forward of Amazon Prime days to mid-October may have something to do with the changing expectations around spending, inventories and advertising ahead of the holiday season. Another barometer is Halloween spending. Given that the pandemic will likely constrain social interaction around Halloween, there is a likely parallel between that change in behavior and the almost certain pullback in 2020 experiential holiday spending linked to the pandemic. Should Halloween spending look weak, that would not bode well for the traditional holiday spending season.

For more information on how the coronavirus is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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