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Chart of the day: Jobless claims approach pre-pandemic level

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Claims for jobless benefits continued to signal a steady bounce back of the labor market as new filings declined to a pandemic low of 267,000 for the week ending Nov. 6.

That was 4,000 fewer claims compared to the previous week and was the sixth consecutive weekly drop, according to data on Wednesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As labor shortages remained a challenge for businesses, there were fewer incentives to let workers go, while labor headwinds like the delta variant’s surge were in the rearview mirror.

Jobless claims chart

At the same time, demand for labor remained high, offering more opportunities for unemployed workers to find new jobs.

We expect initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, to continue to decline in the coming months as economic activities recover.

New filings for jobless claims were only 55,000 away from the pre-pandemic level of 212,000 in March 2020. Our preferred measure, the 13-week moving average for new claims, declined to 319,000 from 327,000 in the previous week.

The total number of claims for all programs for the week ending Oct. 23 was 2.57 million, down by 107,095 from the prior week. This number was 21.7 million one year ago.

On the state level, the largest increase in new claims for the week ending Oct. 30 was from Kentucky (up by 2,882), while the largest decreases were from Missouri (down by 3,014) and Florida (down by 2,286).

Continuing claims chart

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About Tuan Nguyen

@tuannguyen0709

Tuan Nguyen is an economist at RSM US LLP who analyzes high-frequency economic data within the United States and global economies to better understand the American middle market. Tuan’s data-driven economic analysis and insights enhance the ability of middle market companies to thrive in an increasingly competitive global economy. In December 2023, Nguyen and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Based in New York, Tuan works closely with the firm’s cutting-edge Industry Eminence Program to help senior analysts accelerate data-driven strategies in their line of business. His areas of focus include the comprehensive measurement framework for environmental, social and governance (ESG) financial reporting, as well as trends in behavioral, labor and network economics and in industrial organizations. Before joining RSM, he was a graduate researcher, lecturer and teaching assistant for the economics department of his alma mater, Northeastern University, where he taught macroeconomics, international economics and microeconomic theory.

Nguyen holds a Ph.D. in econometrics and quantitative economics from Northeastern University and holds a bachelor of arts in economics and international affairs from the University of New Hampshire, where he graduated summa cum laude and was recognized as an outstanding economics student.

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