Economics of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act

President Biden on Thursday signed the $1.9 trillion fiscal aid and stimulus package into law. The American Rescue Plan Act will provide a robust tailwind to the domestic economy as it recovers from the pandemic and will most likely boost gross domestic product by an additional three percentage points.

Based on this latest development, we have upgraded our growth forecast for the year to 7.2% (previously 6.1%) and our 2022 growth estimate to 4.8% (up from 3.2%). For 2023, we now expect a 2.9% pace of growth. All of those estimates are well above the long-term growth rate in the United States of 1.8%.

It is critical to point out that we think there is notable risk of much faster growth over the 2021-23 period because of this legislation and the $1 trillion or so of spending still in the pipeline from December’s package.

Based on a quick look at the legislation, roughly 85% of the $1.9 trillion is dedicated to addressing the pandemic, 75% or so is one-time spending and nearly $1.16 trillion of it is designed to be spent this year. Inside that, roughly half of the $680 billion in income transfers this year will be in the form of stimulus checks.

We expect that those checks will boost net household savings, which through the end of January stood at $3.97 trillion, creating the conditions for a household-led economic boom that will almost certainly be the largest in anyone’s lifetime. Policymakers, investors and firm managers should anticipate the best growth in the American economy since the mid-1980’s and quite possibly since the World War II era.

Perhaps the most ambitious portion of the plan is the major expansion of the existing child tax credit, which provides $2,000 per year for children from birth through the age of 16. Under the new Biden plan, most families would receive $3,600 for each child under the age of 6 and $3,000 per year for each child ages 6 to 17. In our estimation, this represents the most significant expansion of the social safety net in the U.S. in more than 50 years.

Based on the latest Congressional Budget Office estimate, this will result in a cumulative increase of $1.85 trillion in the federal debt over 10 years. These eye-popping growth estimates are what has been behind the recent move upward in the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which was 1.51% on Wednesday, up from 0.91% to start the year. They have stimulated the debate across financial markets and in policy circles on the risks of an overheating economy and inflation.

While we do expect inflation to increase toward 3% in the top-line Consumer Price Index in mid-2021, mostly because of year-ago base effects linked to the recovery in oil and energy prices, we expect that increase will be transitory. In our view, the top-line inflation number will ease back toward 2% over the next 12 to 24 months. We do not anticipate a permanent increase in the price level nor a change in inflation expectations that results in higher inflation or any significant risk to the economic outlook linked to pricing.

Based on CBO’s scoring of the plan, the major elements of it by size are:

• Stimulus checks
  • $402 billion immediate aid
  • $393 billion FY 2021
• State and local fiscal aid
  • $362 billion immediate aid
  • $284 billion FY 2021
• Unemployment benefits extension
  • $205 billion immediate aid
  • $195 billion FY 2021
• Education aid
  • $165 billion immediate aid
  • $12 billion FY 21
• Child tax credit increase
  • $109 billion immediate aid
  • $26 billion FY 21
• Union pension plan aid
  • $86 billion immediate aid
• Federal Emergency Management Agency
  • $50 billion immediate aid
  • $11 billion FY 21
• COVID-19 testing, contract tracing and mitigation
  • $48 billion immediate aid
  • $10 billion FY 21
• Obamacare COBRA subsidies
  • $37 billion immediate aid
  • $28 billion FY 21
• Transit grants
  • $30 billion immediate aid
  • $10 billion FY 21
• Restaurant aid
  • $29 billion immediate aid
  • $29 billion FY 21
• Child care assistance
  • $24 billion immediate aid
  • $4 billion FY 21
• Tax credits
  • $24 billion immediate aid
  • $4 billion FY 21
• Rental assistance
  • $22 billion immediate aid
  • $8 billion in FY 21
• Other small provisions
  • $262 billion immediate aid
  • $149 billion FY 21

For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.