Job openings rose for the second straight month, according to data that was delayed by the government shutdown, suggesting that labor demand outperformed expectations in September and October. Yet the underlying picture is softer than the headline implies.
Much of the gains appeared concentrated among small businesses, most likely in leisure and hospitality, pointing to seasonal rather than structural hiring momentum.
At the same time, the rate of workers quitting, a cleaner gauge of labor-market balance, tells a different story: The quit rate fell to the lowest level since 2020, signaling that workers feel less confident about switching jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday.
The market continues to shift toward one that is friendly to employers as workers’ bargaining power weakens. Rising layoff rates—now near a three-year high—underscore why workers are staying put.
Against that backdrop, the latest report does little to brighten the labor outlook. It instead reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday, a move that markets have largely priced in.
With job openings skewed toward smaller employers and job quits at post-pandemic lows, wage pressures look poised to ease further.
The data
The report included both September and October numbers. Job openings rose to 7.658 million in September and 7.670 million in October.
The number of people quitting rose to 3.128 million in September but fell sharply to 2.941 million in October. Layoffs rose to 1.781 million in September and 1.854 million in October.
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